| DOI: | 10.1002/2016GL068811
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| 论文题名: | On the detection of precipitation dependence on temperature |
| 作者: | Zhou Y.; Luo M.; Leung Y.
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| 刊名: | Geophysical Research Letters
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| ISSN: | 0094-9050
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| EISSN: | 1944-8781
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| 出版年: | 2016
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| 卷: | 43, 期:9 | | 起始页码: | 4555
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| 结束页码: | 4565
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| 语种: | 英语
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| 英文关键词: | climate change
; detection of dependence
; extreme precipitation
; global warming hiatus
; temperature dependence
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| Scopus关键词: | Global warming
; Precipitation (meteorology)
; Regression analysis
; Temperature distribution
; Difference method
; Extreme precipitation
; False indication
; Global temperatures
; Heavy precipitation
; Interannual
; Temperature dependence
; Temperature drops
; Climate change
; climate change
; detection method
; extreme event
; global warming
; hiatus
; precipitation (climatology)
; precipitation intensity
; regression analysis
; temperature effect
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| 英文摘要: | Employing their newly proposed interannual difference method (IADM), Liu et al. (2009) and Shiu et al. (2012) reported a shocking increase of around 100% K-1 in heavy precipitation with warming global temperature in 1979-2007. Such increase is alarming and prompts us to probe into the IADM. In this study, both analytical derivations and numerical analyses demonstrate that IADM provides no additional information to that of the conventional linear regression, and also, it may give a false indication of dependence. For clarity and simplicity, we therefore recommend linear regression analysis over the IADM for the detection of dependence. We also find that heavy precipitation decreased during the global warming hiatus, and the precipitation dependence on temperature drops by almost 50% when the study period is extended to 1979-2014 and it may keep dropping in the near future. The risk of having heavy precipitation under warming global temperature may have been overestimated. © 2016. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved. |
| URL: | https://www.scopus.com/inward/record.uri?eid=2-s2.0-84969972555&doi=10.1002%2f2016GL068811&partnerID=40&md5=bd4afb77bc6ce58f8cb5e14750b9b593
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| Citation statistics: |
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| 资源类型: | 期刊论文
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| 标识符: | http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/10013
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| Appears in Collections: | 科学计划与规划
气候变化与战略
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作者单位: | Max Planck Institute for the Physics of Complex Systems, Dresden, Germany
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| Recommended Citation: | |
Zhou Y.,Luo M.,Leung Y.. On the detection of precipitation dependence on temperature[J]. Geophysical Research Letters,2016-01-01,43(9).
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