globalchange  > 科学计划与规划
DOI: 10.1002/2016GL068392
论文题名:
Tipping elements of the Indian monsoon: Prediction of onset and withdrawal
作者: Stolbova V.; Surovyatkina E.; Bookhagen B.; Kurths J.
刊名: Geophysical Research Letters
ISSN: 0094-9070
EISSN: 1944-8801
出版年: 2016
卷: 43, 期:8
起始页码: 3982
结束页码: 3990
语种: 英语
英文关键词: air temperature ; critical fluctuations ; Indian monsoon ; onset and withdrawal ; precursor ; prediction
Scopus关键词: Atmospheric pressure ; Atmospheric temperature ; Atmospheric thermodynamics ; Air temperature ; Critical fluctuations ; Indian monsoon ; Onset and withdrawal ; Precursor ; Forecasting ; air temperature ; El Nino-Southern Oscillation ; monsoon ; prediction ; relative humidity ; temperature anomaly ; weather forecasting ; India
英文摘要: Forecasting the onset and withdrawal of the Indian summer monsoon is crucial for the life and prosperity of more than one billion inhabitants of the Indian subcontinent. However, accurate prediction of monsoon timing remains a challenge, despite numerous efforts. Here we present a method for prediction of monsoon timing based on a critical transition precursor. We identify geographic regions - tipping elements of the monsoon - and use them as observation locations for predicting onset and withdrawal dates. Unlike most predictability methods, our approach does not rely on precipitation analysis but on air temperature and relative humidity, which are well represented both in models and observations. The proposed method allows to predict onset 2 weeks earlier and withdrawal dates 1.5 months earlier than existing methods. In addition, it enables to correctly forecast monsoon duration for some anomalous years, often associated with El Niño-Southern Oscillation. ©2016. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved.
URL: https://www.scopus.com/inward/record.uri?eid=2-s2.0-84981763967&doi=10.1002%2f2016GL068392&partnerID=40&md5=99a85f003c62c66c12d9588f72f5643c
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/10033
Appears in Collections:科学计划与规划
气候变化与战略

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作者单位: Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Potsdam, Germany

Recommended Citation:
Stolbova V.,Surovyatkina E.,Bookhagen B.,et al. Tipping elements of the Indian monsoon: Prediction of onset and withdrawal[J]. Geophysical Research Letters,2016-01-01,43(8).
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