DOI: 10.1002/2016GL068432
论文题名: Impact of increasing heat waves on U.S. ozone episodes in the 2050s: Results from a multimodel analysis using extreme value theory
作者: Shen L. ; Mickley L.J. ; Gilleland E.
刊名: Geophysical Research Letters
ISSN: 0094-9085
EISSN: 1944-8816
出版年: 2016
卷: 43, 期: 8 起始页码: 4017
结束页码: 4025
语种: 英语
英文关键词: climate change
; extreme value theory
; ozone episodes
; ozone suppression
Scopus关键词: Climate change
; Ozone
; Pareto principle
; Wind effects
; Anthropogenic emissions
; Extreme value theory
; Generalized Pareto Distributions
; High temperature
; Logistic regressions
; Maximum temperature
; Ozone episodes
; Statistical modeling
; Climate models
; climate change
; climate modeling
; greenhouse effect
; human activity
; numerical model
; ozone
; temperature profile
; United States
英文摘要: We develop a statistical model using extreme value theory to estimate the 2000-2050 changes in ozone episodes across the United States. We model the relationships between daily maximum temperature (Tmax) and maximum daily 8 h average (MDA8) ozone in May-September over 2003-2012 using a Point Process (PP) model. At ~20% of the sites, a marked decrease in the ozone-temperature slope occurs at high temperatures, defined as ozone suppression. The PP model sometimes fails to capture ozone-Tmax relationships, so we refit the ozone-Tmax slope using logistic regression and a generalized Pareto distribution model. We then apply the resulting hybrid-extreme value theory model to projections of Tmax from an ensemble of downscaled climate models. Assuming constant anthropogenic emissions at the present level, we find an average increase of 2.3 d a-1 in ozone episodes (>75 ppbv) across the United States by the 2050s, with a change of +3-9 d a-1 at many sites. ©2016. The Authors. URL: https://www.scopus.com/inward/record.uri?eid=2-s2.0-84992294001&doi=10.1002%2f2016GL068432&partnerID=40&md5=72781e7aac87188f829f8a00a5106825
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/10048
Appears in Collections: 科学计划与规划 气候变化与战略
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作者单位: School of Engineering and Applied Sciences, Harvard University, Cambridge, MA, United States
Recommended Citation:
Shen L.,Mickley L.J.,Gilleland E.. Impact of increasing heat waves on U.S. ozone episodes in the 2050s: Results from a multimodel analysis using extreme value theory[J]. Geophysical Research Letters,2016-01-01,43(8).