DOI: 10.1002/2016GL068694
论文题名: Atlantic near-term climate variability and the role of a resolved Gulf Stream
作者: Siqueira L. ; Kirtman B.P.
刊名: Geophysical Research Letters
ISSN: 0094-9103
EISSN: 1944-8834
出版年: 2016
卷: 43, 期: 8 起始页码: 3964
结束页码: 3972
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Climate Dynamics
; Near-term Climate Predictability
; Near-term Climate Variability
Scopus关键词: Atmospheric temperature
; Climate models
; Climatology
; Greenhouse gases
; Ocean currents
; Oceanography
; Surface waters
; Air sea interactions
; Climate dynamics
; Climate information
; Climate predictability
; Climate variability
; Coupled climate model
; Intergovernmental panel on climate changes
; Sea surface temperature (SST)
; Climate change
英文摘要: There is a continually increasing demand for near-term (i.e., lead times up to a couple of decades) climate information. This demand is partly driven by the need to have robust forecasts and is partly driven by the need to assess how much of the ongoing climate change is due to natural variability and how much is due to anthropogenic increases in greenhouse gases or other external factors. Here we discuss results from a set of state-of-the-art climate model experiments in comparison with observational estimates that show that an assessment of predictability requires models that capture the variability of major oceanic fronts, which are, at best, poorly resolved and may even be absent in the near-term prediction of Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change class models. This is the first time that air-sea interactions associated with resolved Gulf Stream sea surface temperature have been identified in the context of a state-of-the-art global coupled climate model with inferred near-term predictability. ©2016. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved. URL: https://www.scopus.com/inward/record.uri?eid=2-s2.0-84966769887&doi=10.1002%2f2016GL068694&partnerID=40&md5=f3a67e3d3af0f0e570102ad8090b5f71
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/10066
Appears in Collections: 科学计划与规划 气候变化与战略
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作者单位: Rosenstiel School of Marine and Atmospheric Science, University of Miami, Miami, United States
Recommended Citation:
Siqueira L.,Kirtman B.P.. Atlantic near-term climate variability and the role of a resolved Gulf Stream[J]. Geophysical Research Letters,2016-01-01,43(8).