globalchange  > 科学计划与规划
DOI: 10.1002/2015GL067448
论文题名:
Emergence of heat extremes attributable to anthropogenic influences
作者: King A.D.; Black M.T.; Min S.-K.; Fischer E.M.; Mitchell D.M.; Harrington L.J.; Perkins-Kirkpatrick S.E.
刊名: Geophysical Research Letters
ISSN: 0094-9127
EISSN: 1944-8858
出版年: 2016
卷: 43, 期:7
起始页码: 3438
结束页码: 3443
语种: 英语
英文关键词: attribution ; CMIP5 ; extremes ; observations ; time of emergence
Scopus关键词: Probability ; Attribution ; CMIP5 ; Extremes ; Observations ; Time of emergence ; Climate change
英文摘要: Climate scientists have demonstrated that a substantial fraction of the probability of numerous recent extreme events may be attributed to human-induced climate change. However, it is likely that for temperature extremes occurring over previous decades a fraction of their probability was attributable to anthropogenic influences. We identify the first record-breaking warm summers and years for which a discernible contribution can be attributed to human influence. We find a significant human contribution to the probability of record-breaking global temperature events as early as the 1930s. Since then, all the last 16 record-breaking hot years globally had an anthropogenic contribution to their probability of occurrence. Aerosol-induced cooling delays the timing of a significant human contribution to record-breaking events in some regions. Without human-induced climate change recent hot summers and years would be very unlikely to have occurred. © 2016. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved.
URL: https://www.scopus.com/inward/record.uri?eid=2-s2.0-84979492886&doi=10.1002%2f2015GL067448&partnerID=40&md5=b1efb39fb736bd81d2acb3fe99feb759
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/10090
Appears in Collections:科学计划与规划
气候变化与战略

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作者单位: ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate System Science, School of Earth Sciences, University of Melbourne, Parkville, VIC, Australia

Recommended Citation:
King A.D.,Black M.T.,Min S.-K.,et al. Emergence of heat extremes attributable to anthropogenic influences[J]. Geophysical Research Letters,2016-01-01,43(7).
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