DOI: 10.1002/2016GL068653
论文题名: Investigating the seasonal predictability of significant wave height in the West Pacific and Indian Oceans
作者: Lopez H. ; Kirtman B.P.
刊名: Geophysical Research Letters
ISSN: 0094-9150
EISSN: 1944-8881
出版年: 2016
卷: 43, 期: 7 起始页码: 3451
结束页码: 3458
语种: 英语
英文关键词: couple general circulation model
; deterministic forecast skill
; predictability
; probabilistic forecast skill
; significant wave height
Scopus关键词: Atmospheric pressure
; Climate models
; Climatology
; Signal to noise ratio
; Water waves
; Deterministic forecasts
; General circulation model
; Predictability
; Probabilistic forecasts
; Significant wave height
; Forecasting
英文摘要: This study investigates seasonal prediction skill of significant wave height (SWH) in the West Pacific and Indian Oceans. We forced the WAVEWATCH III model with 10 m winds from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction Reanalysis-2 and from the Community Climate System Model version 4 North American Multi-Model Ensemble retrospective forecasts for the period of January 1979 to December 2013. Results indicate potential for predicting SWH with several months lead time during boreal summers after the warm phase of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) measured by deterministic and probabilistic skill scores in the Northwest Pacific and Bay of Bengal. During these summers, SWH is smaller than normal due to reduced atmospheric synoptic activity associated with an anomalously anticyclone in the western Pacific, leading to larger signal-to-noise ratio in the 10 m winds, hence increasing SWH prediction skill. It is shown that ENSO has a nonlinear influence on the number of extremely large SWH events, with reduced number of extreme occurrences during boreal summers after the warm phase of ENSO. © 2016. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved. URL: https://www.scopus.com/inward/record.uri?eid=2-s2.0-84979490986&doi=10.1002%2f2016GL068653&partnerID=40&md5=4ea8261288079f615d8995d7553587f9
Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/10113
Appears in Collections: 科学计划与规划 气候变化与战略
There are no files associated with this item.
作者单位: Cooperative Institute for Marine and Atmospheric Studies, University of Miami, Coral Gables, FL, United States
Recommended Citation:
Lopez H.,Kirtman B.P.. Investigating the seasonal predictability of significant wave height in the West Pacific and Indian Oceans[J]. Geophysical Research Letters,2016-01-01,43(7).