globalchange  > 科学计划与规划
DOI: 10.1002/2016GL068159
论文题名:
Predictability of the recent slowdown and subsequent recovery of large-scale surface warming using statistical methods
作者: Mann M.E.; Steinman B.A.; Miller S.K.; Frankcombe L.M.; England M.H.; Cheung A.H.
刊名: Geophysical Research Letters
ISSN: 0094-9178
EISSN: 1944-8909
出版年: 2016
卷: 43, 期:7
起始页码: 3459
结束页码: 3467
语种: 英语
英文关键词: climate change ; global warming ; internal variability ; predictability ; temperature extremes
Scopus关键词: Atmospheric temperature ; Global warming ; Climate variability ; Climatic variability ; Internal variability ; Low frequency variability ; Northern Hemispheres ; Predictability ; Surface temperatures ; Temperature extremes ; Climate change
英文摘要: The temporary slowdown in large-scale surface warming during the early 2000s has been attributed to both external and internal sources of climate variability. Using semiempirical estimates of the internal low-frequency variability component in Northern Hemisphere, Atlantic, and Pacific surface temperatures in concert with statistical hindcast experiments, we investigate whether the slowdown and its recent recovery were predictable. We conclude that the internal variability of the North Pacific, which played a critical role in the slowdown, does not appear to have been predictable using statistical forecast methods. An additional minor contribution from the North Atlantic, by contrast, appears to exhibit some predictability. While our analyses focus on combining semiempirical estimates of internal climatic variability with statistical hindcast experiments, possible implications for initialized model predictions are also discussed. © 2016. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved.
URL: https://www.scopus.com/inward/record.uri?eid=2-s2.0-84979489337&doi=10.1002%2f2016GL068159&partnerID=40&md5=86934f3a12818325d567669d5f7907c6
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/10141
Appears in Collections:科学计划与规划
气候变化与战略

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作者单位: Department of Meteorology, Earth and Environmental Systems Institute, Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA, United States

Recommended Citation:
Mann M.E.,Steinman B.A.,Miller S.K.,et al. Predictability of the recent slowdown and subsequent recovery of large-scale surface warming using statistical methods[J]. Geophysical Research Letters,2016-01-01,43(7).
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