DOI: 10.1002/2016GL068036
论文题名: Role of soil moisture versus recent climate change for the 2010 heat wave in western Russia
作者: Hauser M. ; Orth R. ; Seneviratne S.I.
刊名: Geophysical Research Letters
ISSN: 0094-9209
EISSN: 1944-8940
出版年: 2016
卷: 43, 期: 6 起始页码: 2819
结束页码: 2826
语种: 英语
英文关键词: event attribution
; Russia 2010
; soil moisture
Scopus关键词: Climatology
; Moisture
; Soil moisture
; Soils
; Anthropogenic climate changes
; Ensemble simulation
; Event attribution
; High temperature
; Internal climate variability
; Moisture conditions
; Russia 2010
; Temperature feedback
; Climate change
; anthropogenic effect
; climate change
; extreme event
; probability
; risk assessment
; soil moisture
; soil temperature
; spatiotemporal analysis
; temperature effect
; wave modeling
; Russian Federation
英文摘要: The severe 2010 heat wave in western Russia was found to be influenced by anthropogenic climate change. Additionally, soil moisture-temperature feedbacks were deemed important for the buildup of the exceptionally high temperatures. We quantify the relative role of both factors by applying the probabilistic event attribution framework and analyze ensemble simulations to distinguish the effect of climate change and the 2010 soil moisture conditions for annual maximum temperatures. The dry 2010 soil moisture alone has increased the risk of a severe heat wave in western Russia sixfold, while climate change from 1960 to 2000 has approximately tripled it. The combined effect of climate change and 2010 soil moisture yields a 13 times higher heat wave risk. We conclude that internal climate variability causing the dry 2010 soil moisture conditions formed a necessary basis for the extreme heat wave. ©2016. The Authors. URL: https://www.scopus.com/inward/record.uri?eid=2-s2.0-84977962691&doi=10.1002%2f2016GL068036&partnerID=40&md5=38e82583d4a034b33a57b0f01acd26fd
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/10172
Appears in Collections: 科学计划与规划 气候变化与战略
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作者单位: Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, ETH Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland
Recommended Citation:
Hauser M.,Orth R.,Seneviratne S.I.. Role of soil moisture versus recent climate change for the 2010 heat wave in western Russia[J]. Geophysical Research Letters,2016-01-01,43(6).