DOI: 10.1002/2016GL067935
论文题名: The importance of ENSO phase during volcanic eruptions for detection and attribution
作者: Lehner F. ; Schurer A.P. ; Hegerl G.C. ; Deser C. ; Frölicher T.L.
刊名: Geophysical Research Letters
ISSN: 0094-9233
EISSN: 1944-8964
出版年: 2016
卷: 43, 期: 6 起始页码: 2851
结束页码: 2858
语种: 英语
英文关键词: climate variability
; detection and attribution
; ENSO phase
; model climate sensitivity
; volcanic response
Scopus关键词: Atmospheric pressure
; Climate change
; Climatology
; Nickel
; Volcanoes
; Climate sensitivity
; Climate variability
; Detection and attributions
; ENSO phase
; Volcanic response
; Climate models
; climate modeling
; climate variation
; cooling
; global warming
; magnitude
; temperature profile
; volcanic eruption
英文摘要: Comparisons of the observed global-scale cooling following recent volcanic eruptions to that simulated by climate models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5) indicate that the models overestimate the magnitude of the global temperature response to volcanic eruptions. Here we show that this overestimation can be explained as a sampling issue, arising because all large eruptions since 1951 coincided with El Niño events, which cause global-scale warming that partially counteracts the volcanically induced cooling. By subsampling the CMIP5 models according to the observed El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phase during each eruption, we find that the simulated global temperature response to volcanic forcing is consistent with observations. Volcanic eruptions pose a particular challenge for the detection and attribution methodology, as their surface impacts are short-lived and hence can be confounded by ENSO. Our results imply that detection and attribution studies must carefully consider sampling biases due to internal climate variability. ©2016. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved. URL: https://www.scopus.com/inward/record.uri?eid=2-s2.0-84979486694&doi=10.1002%2f2016GL067935&partnerID=40&md5=fd3766423adc9dfd22e3d7b8f51dac9c
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/10196
Appears in Collections: 科学计划与规划 气候变化与战略
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作者单位: Climate Analysis Section, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, United States
Recommended Citation:
Lehner F.,Schurer A.P.,Hegerl G.C.,et al. The importance of ENSO phase during volcanic eruptions for detection and attribution[J]. Geophysical Research Letters,2016-01-01,43(6).