| 项目编号: | NE/K016008/1
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| 项目名称: | Process Based Earth System Model Evaluation |
| 作者: | Mathew John Evans
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| 承担单位: | University of York
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| 批准年: | 2012
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| 开始日期: | 2013-30-07
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| 结束日期: | 2015-29-07
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| 资助金额: | GBP154946
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| 资助来源: | UK-NERC
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| 项目类别: | Research Grant
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| 国家: | UK
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| 语种: | 英语
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| 特色学科分类: | Atmospheric phys. & chemistry 
; (50%)
; Climate & Climate Change 
; (40%)
; Pollution, waste & resources 
; (10%)
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| 英文摘要: | Climate change and air pollution are two of the biggest challenges facing humanity today. Ozone and particulate matter are pollutants that are particularly harmful to human health. Recent studies have suggested that in the UK alone they cause 50,000 extra deaths and result in a financial burden of £8-22 billion per year. Both ozone and particulate matter also play an important role in climate change. Ozone absorbs infra-red radiation resulting in a warming of the climate. Particles scatter and absorb incoming solar radiation and alter the properties of clouds. This results in complex interactions with the Earth's climate, with some types of aerosol pollution warming climate whereas others cool climate. Future air quality depends both on changes to emissions of pollutants and to changes in climate. Furthermore, a warming climate can result in worsened air pollution, which in turn can drive additional warming, meaning that complex feedbacks are possible between air pollution and climate.
To help understand these complex interactions and feedbacks scientists have developed Earth System Models that include a description of the important physical and biogeochemical processes. These models are increasingly being used by policy makers to make predictions about future air quality and climate and to guide policy decisions. It is therefore important that the models are rigorously tested.
This testing involves using detailed observations of atmospheric composition that have been made over the past few decades at locations around the world. Most model evaluation to date has involved testing whether the models simulate current average concentrations of atmospheric pollutants. Whilst this is a useful and necessary first step in model evaluation it does not test whether the model accurately simulates the change in concentration of a pollutant under changing emissions or changing climate. For example, does the model capture the real-world change in concentrations of a pollutant iven a particular change in emission or under a future climate change scenario? This is particularly important as these predictions under-pin policy recommendations for air quality abatement.
In this project we will synthesis long-term (multi-decadal) observations of ozone and particulate matter and their atmospheric precursors. We will use these observations to explore trends and variability that have been observed over the past few decades. We will then develop a model-observation framework that can be used to evaluate how well models simulate observed variability and trends. We will test state-of-the-art Earth System Models using existing model output from model intercomparison exercises. Finally, we will explore the model processes that are driving simulated variability and trends.
Our results will inform the scientific community as to the fidelity of Earth System Models. This project will help improve our models and give us more confidence in our predictions. |
| 资源类型: | 项目
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| 标识符: | http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/102199
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| Appears in Collections: | 科学计划与规划
气候变化与战略
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| Recommended Citation: | |
Mathew John Evans. Process Based Earth System Model Evaluation. 2012-01-01.
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