| DOI: | 10.1002/2015GL067232
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| 论文题名: | Predictability of the Arctic sea ice edge |
| 作者: | Goessling H.F.; Tietsche S.; Day J.J.; Hawkins E.; Jung T.
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| 刊名: | Geophysical Research Letters
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| ISSN: | 0094-9341
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| EISSN: | 1944-9072
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| 出版年: | 2016
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| 卷: | 43, 期:4 | | 起始页码: | 1642
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| 结束页码: | 1650
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| 语种: | 英语
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| 英文关键词: | Arctic
; climate model
; forecast verification
; predictability
; sea ice edge
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| Scopus关键词: | Climate models
; Errors
; Forecasting
; Sea ice
; Arctic
; Arctic sea ice
; Forecast verifications
; Human activities
; Ice concentration
; Predictability
; Sea ice extent
; Sea-ice edge
; Ice
|
| 英文摘要: | Skillful sea ice forecasts from days to years ahead are becoming increasingly important for the operation and planning of human activities in the Arctic. Here we analyze the potential predictability of the Arctic sea ice edge in six climate models. We introduce the integrated ice-edge error (IIEE), a user-relevant verification metric defined as the area where the forecast and the "truth" disagree on the ice concentration being above or below 15%. The IIEE lends itself to decomposition into an absolute extent error, corresponding to the common sea ice extent error, and a misplacement error. We find that the often-neglected misplacement error makes up more than half of the climatological IIEE. In idealized forecast ensembles initialized on 1 July, the IIEE grows faster than the absolute extent error. This means that the Arctic sea ice edge is less predictable than sea ice extent, particularly in September, with implications for the potential skill of end-user relevant forecasts. ©2016. The Authors. |
| URL: | https://www.scopus.com/inward/record.uri?eid=2-s2.0-84959421533&doi=10.1002%2f2015GL067232&partnerID=40&md5=511fc53e7688ed37471061c33d8205b8
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| Citation statistics: |
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| 资源类型: | 期刊论文
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| 标识符: | http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/10304
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| Appears in Collections: | 科学计划与规划
气候变化与战略
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作者单位: | Alfred Wegener Institute, Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine Research, Bremerhaven, Germany
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| Recommended Citation: | |
Goessling H.F.,Tietsche S.,Day J.J.,et al. Predictability of the Arctic sea ice edge[J]. Geophysical Research Letters,2016-01-01,43(4).
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