DOI: 10.1002/2016GL067902
论文题名: Potential for long-lead prediction of the western North Pacific monsoon circulation beyond seasonal time scales
作者: Choi J. ; Son S.-W. ; Seo K.-H. ; Lee J.-Y. ; Kang H.-S.
刊名: Geophysical Research Letters
ISSN: 0094-9363
EISSN: 1944-9094
出版年: 2016
卷: 43, 期: 4 起始页码: 1736
结束页码: 1743
语种: 英语
英文关键词: CMIP5 decadal hindcasts
; monsoon predictability
; western North Pacific summer monsoon
Scopus关键词: Atmospheric pressure
; Atmospheric thermodynamics
; Climatology
; Coupled Model Intercomparison Project
; Hindcasts
; Monsoon circulations
; Monsoon predictability
; Multi-model ensemble
; Southern oscillation
; Western North Pacific
; Western north pacific summer monsoons
; Forecasting
; atmospheric circulation
; climate modeling
; climate prediction
; El Nino-Southern Oscillation
; ensemble forecasting
; hindcasting
; monsoon
; socioeconomic impact
; summer
; Asia
; Pacific Ocean
; Pacific Ocean (Northwest)
英文摘要: Although the western North Pacific (WNP) monsoon circulation significantly impacts the socioeconomic communities around Asia, its prediction is only limited to a few months. By examining the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 decadal hindcast experiments, we explore a possibility of the extended prediction skill for the WNP monsoon circulation beyond seasonal time scales. It is found that the multimodel ensemble (MME) predictions, initialized in January, successfully predict the WNP circulation in spring and early summer. Somewhat surprisingly, a reliable prediction of the WNP circulation appears even in the following spring with a maximum lead time of 14 months. This unexpected prediction skill is likely caused by the improved El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) prediction and the exaggerated dynamical link between the ENSO and premonsoon circulation in the MME prediction. Although further studies are needed, this result may open up new opportunities for the multiseasonal prediction of the WNP monsoon circulation. ©2016. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved. URL: https://www.scopus.com/inward/record.uri?eid=2-s2.0-84976217360&doi=10.1002%2f2016GL067902&partnerID=40&md5=a30f9021c47c3581b0a1813c9a010281
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/10326
Appears in Collections: 科学计划与规划 气候变化与战略
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作者单位: School of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Seoul National University, Seoul, South Korea
Recommended Citation:
Choi J.,Son S.-W.,Seo K.-H.,et al. Potential for long-lead prediction of the western North Pacific monsoon circulation beyond seasonal time scales[J]. Geophysical Research Letters,2016-01-01,43(4).