DOI: 10.1002/2016GL067721
论文题名: Assessment of calibration assumptions under strong climate changes
作者: Van Schaeybroeck B. ; Vannitsem S.
刊名: Geophysical Research Letters
ISSN: 0094-9376
EISSN: 1944-9107
出版年: 2016
卷: 43, 期: 3 起始页码: 1314
结束页码: 1322
语种: 英语
英文关键词: bias correction
; Calibration
; change factor
; climate change
Scopus关键词: Calibration
; Carbon dioxide
; Climate models
; Sea ice
; Bias correction
; Calibration method
; Change factor
; Climate variability
; Global temperatures
; Intermediate complexity
; Model calibration
; Parametric modeling
; Climate change
; assessment method
; calibration
; carbon dioxide
; climate change
; climate forcing
; climate modeling
; environmental factor
; error correction
; sampling bias
; sea ice
英文摘要: Climate model calibration relies on different working hypotheses. The simplest bias correction or delta change methods assume the invariance of bias under climate change. Recent works have questioned this hypothesis and proposed linear bias changes with respect to the forcing. However, when the system experiences larger forcings, these schemes could fail. Calibration assumptions are tested within a simplified framework in the context of an intermediate complexity model for which the reference (or "reality") differs from the model by a single parametric model error and climate change is emulated by largely different CO2 forcings. It appears that calibration does not add value since the variation of bias under climate change is nonmonotonous for almost all variables and large compared to the climate change and the bias, except for the global temperature and sea ice area. For precipitation, calibration provides added value both globally and regionally. The calibration methods used fail to correct climate variability. © 2016. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved. URL: https://www.scopus.com/inward/record.uri?eid=2-s2.0-84975756861&doi=10.1002%2f2016GL067721&partnerID=40&md5=947072c8666de17eb9451d8b67e243a0
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/10339
Appears in Collections: 科学计划与规划 气候变化与战略
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作者单位: Royal Meteorological Institute Belgium, Brussels, Belgium
Recommended Citation:
Van Schaeybroeck B.,Vannitsem S.. Assessment of calibration assumptions under strong climate changes[J]. Geophysical Research Letters,2016-01-01,43(3).