DOI: 10.1002/2015GL067499
论文题名: Observational evidence for a negative shortwave cloud feedback in middle to high latitudes
作者: Ceppi P. ; McCoy D.T. ; Hartmann D.L.
刊名: Geophysical Research Letters
ISSN: 0094-9415
EISSN: 1944-9146
出版年: 2016
卷: 43, 期: 3 起始页码: 1331
结束页码: 1339
语种: 英语
英文关键词: climate
; climate change
; climate feedbacks
; clouds
Scopus关键词: Climate change
; Clouds
; Optical properties
; Climate
; Climate feedbacks
; Cloud optical depth
; Global mean warming
; Local temperature
; Observational data
; Southern latitudes
; Temperature models
; Feedback
; climate change
; climate feedback
; cloud radiative forcing
; concentration (composition)
; feedback mechanism
; global warming
; optical depth
; shortwave radiation
英文摘要: Exploiting the observed robust relationships between temperature and optical depth in extratropical clouds, we calculate the shortwave cloud feedback from historical data, by regressing observed and modeled cloud property histograms onto local temperature in middle to high southern latitudes. In this region, all CMIP5 models and observational data sets predict a negative cloud feedback, mainly driven by optical thickening. Between 45° and 60°S, the mean observed shortwave feedback (-0.91 ± 0.82 W m-2 K-1, relative to local rather than global mean warming) is very close to the multimodel mean feedback in RCP8.5 (-0.98 W m-2 K-1), despite differences in the meridional structure. In models, historical temperature-cloud property relationships reliably predict the forced RCP8.5 response. Because simple theory predicts this optical thickening with warming, and cloud amount changes are relatively small, we conclude that the shortwave cloud feedback is very likely negative in the real world at middle to high latitudes. © 2016. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved. URL: https://www.scopus.com/inward/record.uri?eid=2-s2.0-84976240378&doi=10.1002%2f2015GL067499&partnerID=40&md5=798d9ad3419d66db4674a0fbe9ad9399
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/10378
Appears in Collections: 科学计划与规划 气候变化与战略
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作者单位: Department of Atmospheric Sciences, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, United States
Recommended Citation:
Ceppi P.,McCoy D.T.,Hartmann D.L.. Observational evidence for a negative shortwave cloud feedback in middle to high latitudes[J]. Geophysical Research Letters,2016-01-01,43(3).