DOI: 10.1002/2015GL067336
论文题名: Millenary Mw > 9.0 earthquakes required by geodetic strain in the Himalaya
作者: Stevens V.L. ; Avouac J.-P.
刊名: Geophysical Research Letters
ISSN: 0094-9417
EISSN: 1944-9148
出版年: 2016
卷: 43, 期: 3 起始页码: 1118
结束页码: 1123
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Himalaya
; seismic risk
Scopus关键词: Geodesy
; Geophysics
; Confidence levels
; Geodetic strain
; Himalayas
; Measurements of
; Paleoseismic evidence
; Seismic risk
; Earthquakes
; coseismic process
; earthquake event
; earthquake rupture
; frequency analysis
; geodetic datum
; magnitude
; Medieval
; paleoseismicity
; risk factor
; slip
; strain measurement
; Assam
; Himalayas
; India
英文摘要: The Himalayan arc produced the largest known continental earthquake, the Mw ≈ 8.7 Assam earthquake of 1950, but how frequently and where else in the Himalaya such large-magnitude earthquakes occur is not known. Paleoseismic evidence for coseismic ruptures at the front of the Himalaya with 15 to 30 m of slip suggests even larger events in medieval times, but this inference is debated. Here we estimate the frequency and magnitude of the largest earthquake in the Himalaya needed so that the moment released by seismicity balances the deficit of moment derived from measurements of geodetic strain. Assuming one third of the moment buildup is released aseismically and the earthquakes roughly follow a Gutenberg-Richter distribution, we find that Mw > 9.0 events are needed with a confidence level of at least 60% and must return approximately once per 800 years on average. © 2016. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved. URL: https://www.scopus.com/inward/record.uri?eid=2-s2.0-84975760696&doi=10.1002%2f2015GL067336&partnerID=40&md5=e6e38acf2fbe256d096de2306cb1d361
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/10380
Appears in Collections: 科学计划与规划 气候变化与战略
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作者单位: California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, CA, United States
Recommended Citation:
Stevens V.L.,Avouac J.-P.. Millenary Mw > 9.0 earthquakes required by geodetic strain in the Himalaya[J]. Geophysical Research Letters,2016-01-01,43(3).