DOI: 10.1002/2015GL067431
论文题名: The impact of stratospheric volcanic aerosol on decadal-scale climate predictions
作者: Timmreck C. ; Pohlmann H. ; Illing S. ; Kadow C.
刊名: Geophysical Research Letters
ISSN: 0094-9458
EISSN: 1944-9189
出版年: 2016
卷: 43, 期: 2 起始页码: 834
结束页码: 842
语种: 英语
英文关键词: CMIP5
; decadal predictions
; decadal variability
; volcanoes
Scopus关键词: Aerosols
; Climate models
; Climatology
; Forecasting
; Tropics
; Climate prediction
; CMIP5
; Coupled Model Intercomparison Project
; Decadal predictions
; Decadal variability
; Prediction systems
; South Eastern Europe
; Surface air temperatures
; Volcanoes
; air temperature
; atmosphere-ocean coupling
; climate change
; climate modeling
; climate prediction
; decadal variation
; stratosphere
; volcanic aerosol
; volcanic eruption
; Atlantic Ocean
; Atlantic Ocean (Subtropical)
; Atlantic Ocean (Tropical)
; Pacific Ocean
; Pacific Ocean (Tropical)
; Pacific Ocean (West)
; Scandinavia
英文摘要: To understand the impact of volcanic aerosol on multiyear seasonal and decadal climate predictions, we performed Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5-type hindcasts without volcanic aerosol using the German Mittelfristige Klimaprognosen prediction system and compared them to the corresponding simulations including aerosols. Our results show that volcanic aerosol significantly affects the prediction skill for global mean surface air temperature in the first five years after strong volcanic eruptions. Also, on the regional scale a volcanic imprint on decadal-scale variability is detectable. Neglecting volcanic aerosol leads to a reduced prediction skill over the tropical and subtropical Atlantic, Indic, and west Pacific but to an improvement over the tropical east Pacific, where the model has in general no skill. Multiseasonal differences in the skill for seasonal mean temperatures are evident over Continental Europe with significant skill loss due to neglection of volcanic aerosol in boreal winter over central Europe, Scandinavia and over southeastern Europe, and the East Mediterranean in boreal summer. © 2016. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved. URL: https://www.scopus.com/inward/record.uri?eid=2-s2.0-84958041811&doi=10.1002%2f2015GL067431&partnerID=40&md5=f530dba0d701bbd1e708e0ea51be8c8c
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/10421
Appears in Collections: 科学计划与规划 气候变化与战略
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作者单位: Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Hamburg, Germany
Recommended Citation:
Timmreck C.,Pohlmann H.,Illing S.,et al. The impact of stratospheric volcanic aerosol on decadal-scale climate predictions[J]. Geophysical Research Letters,2016-01-01,43(2).