DOI: 10.1002/2015GL066690
论文题名: Sahel decadal rainfall variability and the role of model horizontal resolution
作者: Vellinga M. ; Roberts M. ; Vidale P.L. ; Mizielinski M.S. ; Demory M.-E. ; Schiemann R. ; Strachan J. ; Bain C.
刊名: Geophysical Research Letters
ISSN: 0094-9494
EISSN: 1944-9225
出版年: 2016
卷: 43, 期: 1 起始页码: 326
结束页码: 333
语种: 英语
英文关键词: African easterly waves
; model resolution
; Sahel decadal rainfall variability
Scopus关键词: Climate change
; Climate models
; African easterly waves
; Decadal timescale
; Global climate model
; Horizontal resolution
; Large-scale circulation
; Long-term prediction
; Model resolution
; Rainfall variability
; Rain
英文摘要: Substantial low-frequency rainfall fluctuations occurred in the Sahel throughout the twentieth century, causing devastating drought. Modeling these low-frequency rainfall fluctuations has remained problematic for climate models for many years. Here we show using a combination of state-of-the-art rainfall observations and high-resolution global climate models that changes in organized heavy rainfall events carry most of the rainfall variability in the Sahel at multiannual to decadal time scales. Ability to produce intense, organized convection allows climate models to correctly simulate the magnitude of late-twentieth century rainfall change, underlining the importance of model resolution. Increasing model resolution allows a better coupling between large-scale circulation changes and regional rainfall processes over the Sahel. These results provide a strong basis for developing more reliable and skilful long-term predictions of rainfall (seasons to years) which could benefit many sectors in the region by allowing early adaptation to impending extremes. ©2015 American Geophysical Union. This article is published with the permission of the Controller of HMSO and the Queen's Printer for Scotland. URL: https://www.scopus.com/inward/record.uri?eid=2-s2.0-84956587213&doi=10.1002%2f2015GL066690&partnerID=40&md5=c2a6dc10ea3c9fe1312a19565ba02603
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/10457
Appears in Collections: 科学计划与规划 气候变化与战略
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作者单位: Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter, United Kingdom
Recommended Citation:
Vellinga M.,Roberts M.,Vidale P.L.,et al. Sahel decadal rainfall variability and the role of model horizontal resolution[J]. Geophysical Research Letters,2016-01-01,43(1).