DOI: 10.1002/2015GL067265
论文题名: Anthropogenic and natural contributions to the Southeast Pacific precipitation decline and recent megadrought in central Chile
作者: Boisier J.P. ; Rondanelli R. ; Garreaud R.D. ; Muñoz F.
刊名: Geophysical Research Letters
ISSN: 0094-9525
EISSN: 1944-9256
出版年: 2016
卷: 43, 期: 1 起始页码: 413
结束页码: 421
语种: 英语
英文关键词: central Chile
; climate change attribution
; drought
; Pacific Decadal Oscillation
; precipitation
; Southeast Pacific
Scopus关键词: Atmospheric temperature
; Climate models
; Drought
; Gages
; Greenhouse gases
; Oceanography
; Precipitation (chemical)
; Rain
; Rain gages
; Surface waters
; Anthropogenic climate changes
; Anthropogenic origin
; Central Chile
; Greenhouse-gas forcing
; Large-scale circulation
; Pacific decadal oscillation
; Sea surface temperature (SST)
; Southeast Pacific
; Climate change
; anthropogenic effect
; climate change
; climate forcing
; climate modeling
; drought
; ensemble forecasting
; greenhouse gas
; Pacific Decadal Oscillation
; precipitation intensity
; raingauge
; regional climate
; sea surface temperature
; spatiotemporal analysis
; trend analysis
; uncertainty analysis
; Chile
; Pacific Ocean
; Pacific Ocean (Southeast)
英文摘要: Within large uncertainties in the precipitation response to greenhouse gas forcing, the Southeast Pacific drying stands out as a robust signature within climate models. A precipitation decline, of consistent direction but of larger amplitude than obtained in simulations with historical climate forcing, has been observed in central Chile since the late 1970s. To attribute the causes of this trend, we analyze local rain gauge data and contrast them to a large ensemble of both fully coupled and sea surface temperature-forced simulations. We show that in concomitance with large-scale circulation changes, the Pacific Decadal Oscillation explains about half of the precipitation trend observed in central Chile. The remaining fraction is unlikely to be driven exclusively by natural phenomena but rather consistent with the simulated regional effect of anthropogenic climate change. We particularly estimate that a quarter of the rainfall deficit affecting this region since 2010 is of anthropogenic origin. An increased persistence and recurrence of droughts in central Chile emerges then as a realistic scenario under the current socioeconomic pathway. © 2015. The Authors. URL: https://www.scopus.com/inward/record.uri?eid=2-s2.0-84957727650&doi=10.1002%2f2015GL067265&partnerID=40&md5=0f7a4d685f4c64f19dac4233058bd183
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/10488
Appears in Collections: 科学计划与规划 气候变化与战略
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作者单位: Department of Geophysics, Universidad de Chile, Santiago, Chile
Recommended Citation:
Boisier J.P.,Rondanelli R.,Garreaud R.D.,et al. Anthropogenic and natural contributions to the Southeast Pacific precipitation decline and recent megadrought in central Chile[J]. Geophysical Research Letters,2016-01-01,43(1).