DOI: 10.1038/s41561-017-0054-8
论文题名: Pathways to 1.5 °c and 2 °c warming based on observational and geological constraints
作者: Goodwin P. ; Katavouta A. ; Roussenov V.M. ; Foster G.L. ; Rohling E.J. ; Williams R.G.
刊名: Nature Geoscience
ISSN: 17520894
出版年: 2018
卷: 11, 期: 2 起始页码: 102
结束页码: 107
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: anthropogenic effect
; carbon emission
; climate change
; climate modeling
; equilibrium
; geological record
; global warming
; observational method
; prediction
; temperature profile
; uncertainty analysis
; warming
英文摘要: To restrict global warming to below the agreed targets requires limiting carbon emissions, the principal driver of anthropogenic warming. However, there is significant uncertainty in projecting the amount of carbon that can be emitted, in part due to the limited number of Earth system model simulations and their discrepancies with present-day observations. Here we demonstrate a novel approach to reduce the uncertainty of climate projections; using theory and geological evidence we generate a very large ensemble (3 × 104) of projections that closely match records for nine key climate metrics, which include warming and ocean heat content. Our analysis narrows the uncertainty in surface-warming projections and reduces the range in equilibrium climate sensitivity. We find that a warming target of 1.5 °C above the pre-industrial level requires the total emitted carbon from the start of year 2017 to be less than 195-205 PgC (in over 66% of the simulations), whereas a warming target of 2 °C is only likely if the emitted carbon remains less than 395-455 PgC. At the current emission rates, these warming targets are reached in 17-18 years and 35-41 years, respectively, so that there is a limited window to develop a more carbon-efficient future. © 2018 The Author(s). Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/105609
Appears in Collections: 气候减缓与适应 科学计划与规划
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作者单位: Ocean and Earth Science, National Oceanography Centre Southampton, University of Southampton, Southampton, United Kingdom; Department of Earth Ocean and Ecological Sciences, School of Environmental Sciences, University of Liverpool, Liverpool, United Kingdom; Research School of Earth Sciences, Australian National University, Canberra, ACT, Australia
Recommended Citation:
Goodwin P.,Katavouta A.,Roussenov V.M.,et al. Pathways to 1.5 °c and 2 °c warming based on observational and geological constraints[J]. Nature Geoscience,2018-01-01,11(2)