DOI: 10.1002/2016GL068948
论文题名: Likelihood testing of seismicity-based rate forecasts of induced earthquakes in Oklahoma and Kansas
作者: Moschetti M.P. ; Hoover S.M. ; Mueller C.S.
刊名: Geophysical Research Letters
ISSN: 0094-9606
EISSN: 1944-9337
出版年: 2016
卷: 43, 期: 10 起始页码: 4913
结束页码: 4921
语种: 英语
英文关键词: earthquake rate forecast
; induced seismicity
; likelihood testing
Scopus关键词: Ability testing
; Forecasting
; Geophysics
; Induced Seismicity
; Seismology
; Earthquake data
; Earthquake location
; Earthquake rates
; Forecasting ability
; Model development
; Non-stationarities
; Seismicity pattern
; Temporal stability
; Earthquakes
英文摘要: Likelihood testing of induced earthquakes in Oklahoma and Kansas has identified the parameters that optimize the forecasting ability of smoothed seismicity models and quantified the recent temporal stability of the spatial seismicity patterns. Use of the most recent 1 year period of earthquake data and use of 10–20 km smoothing distances produced the greatest likelihood. The likelihood that the locations of January–June 2015 earthquakes were consistent with optimized forecasts decayed with increasing elapsed time between the catalogs used for model development and testing. Likelihood tests with two additional sets of earthquakes from 2014 exhibit a strong sensitivity of the rate of decay to the smoothing distance. Marked reductions in likelihood are caused by the nonstationarity of the induced earthquake locations. Our results indicate a multiple-fold benefit from smoothed seismicity models in developing short-term earthquake rate forecasts for induced earthquakes in Oklahoma and Kansas, relative to the use of seismic source zones. ©2016. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved. URL: https://www.scopus.com/inward/record.uri?eid=2-s2.0-84971330946&doi=10.1002%2f2016GL068948&partnerID=40&md5=d76495bf7fda13736940bd6d499b67cf
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/10569
Appears in Collections: 科学计划与规划 气候变化与战略
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作者单位: U.S. Geological Survey, Golden, CO, United States
Recommended Citation:
Moschetti M.P.,Hoover S.M.,Mueller C.S.. Likelihood testing of seismicity-based rate forecasts of induced earthquakes in Oklahoma and Kansas[J]. Geophysical Research Letters,2016-01-01,43(10).