DOI: 10.1002/2016GL069151
论文题名: Seasonal and regional variations in extreme precipitation event frequency using CMIP5
作者: Janssen E. ; Sriver R.L. ; Wuebbles D.J. ; Kunkel K.E.
刊名: Geophysical Research Letters
ISSN: 0094-9622
EISSN: 1944-9353
出版年: 2016
卷: 43, 期: 10 起始页码: 5385
结束页码: 5393
语种: 英语
英文关键词: climate projections
; CMIP5
; extreme precipitation
; seasonal precipitation
Scopus关键词: Climate change
; Precipitation (meteorology)
; Risk assessment
; Uncertainty analysis
; Climate change modeling
; Climate projection
; CMIP5
; Coupled Model Intercomparison Project
; Extreme precipitation
; Extreme precipitation events
; Regional risk assessment
; Seasonal precipitations
; Climate models
英文摘要: Understanding how the frequency and intensity of extreme precipitation events are changing is important for regional risk assessments and adaptation planning. Here we use observational data and an ensemble of climate change model experiments (from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5)) to examine past and potential future seasonal changes in extreme precipitation event frequency over the United States. Using the extreme precipitation index as a metric for extreme precipitation change, we find key differences between models and observations. In particular, the CMIP5 models tend to overestimate the number of spring events and underestimate the number of summer events. This seasonal shift in the models is amplified in projections. These results provide a basis for evaluating climate model skill in simulating observed seasonality and changes in regional extreme precipitation. Additionally, we highlight key sources of variability and uncertainty that can potentially inform regional impact analyses and adaptation planning. ©2016. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved. URL: https://www.scopus.com/inward/record.uri?eid=2-s2.0-84971668276&doi=10.1002%2f2016GL069151&partnerID=40&md5=ab521bfd9c6351d6faccef145af8370c
Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/10585
Appears in Collections: 科学计划与规划 气候变化与战略
There are no files associated with this item.
作者单位: Department of Atmospheric Sciences, University of Illinois, Urbana, IL, United States
Recommended Citation:
Janssen E.,Sriver R.L.,Wuebbles D.J.,et al. Seasonal and regional variations in extreme precipitation event frequency using CMIP5[J]. Geophysical Research Letters,2016-01-01,43(10).