DOI: 10.1038/ngeo2761
论文题名: Enhanced summer convective rainfall at Alpine high elevations in response to climate warming
作者: Giorgi F. ; Torma C. ; Coppola E. ; Ban N. ; Schär C. ; Somot S.
刊名: Nature Geoscience
ISSN: 17520894
出版年: 2016
卷: 9, 期: 8 起始页码: 584
结束页码: 589
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: alpine environment
; climate modeling
; global climate
; global warming
; precipitation (climatology)
; rainfall
; regional climate
; twenty first century
; Alps
英文摘要: Global climate projections consistently indicate a future decrease in summer precipitation over the European Alps. However, topography can substantially modulate precipitation change signals. For example, the shadowing effect by topographic barriers can modify winter precipitation change patterns, and orographic convection might also play an important role. Here we analyse summer precipitation over the Alpine region in an ensemble of twenty-first-century projections with high-resolution (∼12 km) regional climate models driven by recent global climate model simulations. A broad-scale summer precipitation reduction is projected by both model ensembles. However, the regional models simulate an increase in precipitation over the high Alpine elevations that is not present in the global simulations. This is associated with increased convective rainfall due to enhanced potential instability by high-elevation surface heating and moistening. The robustness of this signal, which is found also for precipitation extremes, is supported by the consistency across models and future time slices, the identification of an underlying mechanism (enhanced convection), results from a convection-resolving simulation, the statistical significance of the signal and the consistency with some observed trends. Our results challenge the picture of a ubiquitous decrease of summer precipitation over the Alps found in coarse-scale projections. © 2016 Macmillan Publishers Limited. All rights reserved. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/105959
Appears in Collections: 气候减缓与适应 科学计划与规划
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作者单位: Earth System Physics Section, Abdus Salam International Centre for Theoretical Physics, Trieste, Italy; Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, ETH Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland; Météo-France/CNRS, CNRM, Centre National de Recherches Météorologiques, Toulouse, France
Recommended Citation:
Giorgi F.,Torma C.,Coppola E.,et al. Enhanced summer convective rainfall at Alpine high elevations in response to climate warming[J]. Nature Geoscience,2016-01-01,9(8)