DOI: 10.1038/ngeo2687
论文题名: Long-lead predictions of eastern United States hot days from Pacific sea surface temperatures
作者: McKinnon K.A. ; Rhines A. ; Tingley M.P. ; Huybers P.
刊名: Nature Geoscience
ISSN: 17520894
出版年: 2016
卷: 9, 期: 5 起始页码: 389
结束页码: 394
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: climate prediction
; high temperature
; precipitation (climatology)
; rainfall
; sea surface temperature
; seasonal variation
; summer
; temperature anomaly
; weather forecasting
; Pacific Ocean
; United States
英文摘要: Seasonal forecast models exhibit only modest skill in predicting extreme summer temperatures across the eastern US. Anomalies in sea surface temperature and monthly-resolution rainfall have, however, been correlated with hot days in the US, and seasonal persistence of these anomalies suggests potential for long-lead predictability. Here we present a clustering analysis of daily maximum summer temperatures from US weather stations between 1982-2015 and identify a region spanning most of the eastern US where hot weather events tend to occur synchronously. We then show that an evolving pattern of sea surface temperature anomalies, termed the Pacific Extreme Pattern, provides for skillful prediction of hot weather within this region as much as 50 days in advance. Skill is demonstrated using out-of-sample predictions between 1950 and 2015. Rainfall deficits over the eastern US are also associated with the occurrence of the Pacific Extreme Pattern and are demonstrated to offer complementary skill in predicting high temperatures. The Pacific Extreme Pattern appears to provide a cohesive framework for improving seasonal prediction of summer precipitation deficits and high temperature anomalies in the eastern US. © 2016 Macmillan Publishers Limited. All rights reserved. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/106018
Appears in Collections: 气候减缓与适应 科学计划与规划
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作者单位: National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, United States; Department of Atmospheric Sciences, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, United States; Department of Meteorology, Pennsylvania State University, Pennsylvania, United States; Department of Earth and Planetary Sciences, Harvard University, Cambridge, MA, United States
Recommended Citation:
McKinnon K.A.,Rhines A.,Tingley M.P.,et al. Long-lead predictions of eastern United States hot days from Pacific sea surface temperatures[J]. Nature Geoscience,2016-01-01,9(5)