DOI: 10.1038/ngeo2681
论文题名: Anthropogenic carbon release rate unprecedented during the past 66 million years
作者: Zeebe R.E. ; Ridgwell A. ; Zachos J.C.
刊名: Nature Geoscience
ISSN: 17520894
出版年: 2016
卷: 9, 期: 4 起始页码: 325
结束页码: 329
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: anthropogenic effect
; carbon cycle
; carbon isotope
; climate change
; Hypsithermal
; oxygen isotope
; Paleocene-Eocene boundary
; paleoclimate
; time series analysis
; uncertainty analysis
; New Jersey
; United States
英文摘要: Carbon release rates from anthropogenic sources reached a record high of ∼10 Pg C yr-1 in 2014. Geologic analogues from past transient climate changes could provide invaluable constraints on the response of the climate system to such perturbations, but only if the associated carbon release rates can be reliably reconstructed. The Palaeocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM) is known at present to have the highest carbon release rates of the past 66 million years, but robust estimates of the initial rate and onset duration are hindered by uncertainties in age models. Here we introduce a new method to extract rates of change from a sedimentary record based on the relative timing of climate and carbon cycle changes, without the need for an age model. We apply this method to stable carbon and oxygen isotope records from the New Jersey shelf using time-series analysis and carbon cycle-climate modelling. We calculate that the initial carbon release during the onset of the PETM occurred over at least 4,000 years. This constrains the maximum sustained PETM carbon release rate to less than 1.1 Pg C yr-1. We conclude that, given currently available records, the present anthropogenic carbon release rate is unprecedented during the past 66 million years. We suggest that such a 'no-analogue' state represents a fundamental challenge in constraining future climate projections. Also, future ecosystem disruptions are likely to exceed the relatively limited extinctions observed at the PETM. © 2016 Macmillan Publishers Limited. All rights reserved. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/106029
Appears in Collections: 气候减缓与适应 科学计划与规划
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作者单位: School of Ocean and Earth Science and Technology, University of Hawaii at Manoa, 1000 Pope Road, MSB 629, Honolulu, HI, United States; School of Geographical Sciences, University of Bristol, University Road, Bristol, United Kingdom; Department of Earth Sciences, University of California Riverside, 900 University Avenue, Riverside, CA, United States; Earth and Planetary Sciences, University of California Santa Cruz, 1156 High Street, Santa Cruz, CA, United States
Recommended Citation:
Zeebe R.E.,Ridgwell A.,Zachos J.C.. Anthropogenic carbon release rate unprecedented during the past 66 million years[J]. Nature Geoscience,2016-01-01,9(4)