DOI: 10.1038/ngeo2670
论文题名: Disentangling greenhouse warming and aerosol cooling to reveal Earth's climate sensitivity
作者: Storelvmo T. ; Leirvik T. ; Lohmann U. ; Phillips P.C.B. ; Wild M.
刊名: Nature Geoscience
ISSN: 17520894
出版年: 2016
卷: 9, 期: 4 起始页码: 286
结束页码: 289
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: aerosol
; carbon dioxide
; climate conditions
; climate modeling
; concentration (composition)
; cooling
; Earth
; energy balance
; global climate
; greenhouse gas
; sensitivity analysis
; statistical analysis
; surface temperature
; trend analysis
; warming
英文摘要: Earth's climate sensitivity has long been subject to heated debate and has spurred renewed interest after the latest IPCC assessment report suggested a downward adjustment of its most likely range. Recent observational studies have produced estimates of transient climate sensitivity, that is, the global mean surface temperature increase at the time of CO2 doubling, as low as 1.3 K (refs 2,3), well below the best estimate produced by global climate models (1.8 K). Here, we present an observation-based study of the time period 1964 to 2010, which does not rely on climate models. The method incorporates observations of greenhouse gas concentrations, temperature and radiation from approximately 1,300 surface sites into an energy balance framework. Statistical methods commonly applied to economic time series are then used to decompose observed temperature trends into components attributable to changes in greenhouse gas concentrations and surface radiation. We find that surface radiation trends, which have been largely explained by changes in atmospheric aerosol loading, caused a cooling that masked approximately one-third of the continental warming due to increasing greenhouse gas concentrations over the past half-century. In consequence, the method yields a higher transient climate sensitivity (2.0±0.8 K) than other observational studies. © 2016 Macmillan Publishers Limited. All rights reserved. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/106032
Appears in Collections: 气候减缓与适应 科学计划与规划
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作者单位: Department of Geology and Geophysics, Yale University, New Haven, CT, United States; Graduate School of Business, Nord University, Bodø, Norway; Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, ETH Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland; Department of Economics, Yale University, New Haven, CT, United States
Recommended Citation:
Storelvmo T.,Leirvik T.,Lohmann U.,et al. Disentangling greenhouse warming and aerosol cooling to reveal Earth's climate sensitivity[J]. Nature Geoscience,2016-01-01,9(4)