globalchange  > 气候减缓与适应
DOI: 10.1038/ngeo2653
论文题名:
Limitations of rupture forecasting exposed by instantaneously triggered earthquake doublet
作者: Nissen E.; Elliott J.R.; Sloan R.A.; Craig T.J.; Funning G.J.; Hutko A.; Parsons B.E.; Wright T.J.
刊名: Nature Geoscience
ISSN: 17520894
出版年: 2016
卷: 9, 期:4
起始页码: 330
结束页码: 336
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: earthquake magnitude ; earthquake trigger ; fault slip ; forecasting method ; hazard assessment ; reverse fault ; rupture ; seismic hazard ; seismic moment ; seismic wave ; trigger mechanism ; Pakistan
英文摘要: Earthquake hazard assessments and rupture forecasts are based on the potential length of seismic rupture and whether or not slip is arrested at fault segment boundaries. Such forecasts do not generally consider that one earthquake can trigger a second large event, near-instantaneously, at distances greater than a few kilometres. Here we present a geodetic and seismological analysis of a magnitude 7.1 intracontinental earthquake that occurred in Pakistan in 1997. We find that the earthquake, rather than a single event as hitherto assumed, was in fact an earthquake doublet: initial rupture on a shallow, blind reverse fault was followed just 19 s later by a second rupture on a separate reverse fault 50 km away. Slip on the second fault increased the total seismic moment by half, and doubled both the combined event duration and the area of maximum ground shaking. We infer that static Coulomb stresses at the initiation location of the second earthquake were probably reduced as a result of the first. Instead, we suggest that a dynamic triggering mechanism is likely, although the responsible seismic wave phase is unclear. Our results expose a flaw in earthquake rupture forecasts that disregard cascading, multiple-fault ruptures of this type. © 2016 Macmillan Publishers Limited. All rights reserved.
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/106039
Appears in Collections:气候减缓与适应
科学计划与规划

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作者单位: Department of Geophysics, Colorado School of Mines, 1500 Illinois Street, Golden, CO, United States; COMET, Department of Earth Sciences, University of Oxford, South Parks Road, Oxford, United Kingdom; Department of Geological Sciences, University of Cape Town, Private Bag X3, Rondebosch, South Africa; COMET, School of Earth and Environment, University of Leeds, Leeds, United Kingdom; Department of Earth Sciences, University of California, Riverside, CA, United States; Incorporated Research Institutions for Seismology (IRIS) Data Management Center, 1408 NE 45th Street, Seattle, WA, United States

Recommended Citation:
Nissen E.,Elliott J.R.,Sloan R.A.,et al. Limitations of rupture forecasting exposed by instantaneously triggered earthquake doublet[J]. Nature Geoscience,2016-01-01,9(4)
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