DOI: 10.1038/ngeo2563
论文题名: Divergent trajectories of Antarctic surface melt under two twenty-first-century climate scenarios
作者: Trusel L.D. ; Frey K.E. ; Das S.B. ; Karnauskas K.B. ; Kuipers Munneke P. ; Van Meijgaard E. ; Van Den Broeke M.R.
刊名: Nature Geoscience
ISSN: 17520894
出版年: 2015
卷: 8, 期: 12 起始页码: 927
结束页码: 932
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: air temperature
; climate modeling
; global ocean
; ice sheet
; ice shelf
; ice-ocean interaction
; sea level change
; trajectory
; Antarctic Peninsula
; Antarctica
; West Antarctica
英文摘要: Ice shelves modulate Antarctic contributions to sea-level rise and thereby represent a critical, climate-sensitive interface between the Antarctic ice sheet and the global ocean. Following rapid atmospheric warming over the past decades, Antarctic Peninsula ice shelves have progressively retreated, at times catastrophically. This decay supports hypotheses of thermal limits of viability for ice shelves via surface melt forcing. Here we use a polar-adapted regional climate model and satellite observations to quantify the nonlinear relationship between surface melting and summer air temperature. Combining observations and multimodel simulations, we examine melt evolution and intensification before observed ice shelf collapse on the Antarctic Peninsula. We then assess the twenty-first-century evolution of surface melt across Antarctica under intermediate and high emissions climate scenarios. Our projections reveal a scenario-independent doubling of Antarctic-wide melt by 2050. Between 2050 and 2100, however, significant divergence in melt occurs between the two climate scenarios. Under the high emissions pathway by 2100, melt on several ice shelves approaches or surpasses intensities that have historically been associated with ice shelf collapse, at least on the northeast Antarctic Peninsula. © 2015 Macmillan Publishers Limited. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/106120
Appears in Collections: 气候减缓与适应 科学计划与规划
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作者单位: Department of Geology and Geophysics, Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, Woods Hole, MA, United States; Graduate School of Geography, Clark University, Worcester, MA, United States; Institute for Marine and Atmospheric Research, Utrecht University, Utrecht, Netherlands; Department of Geography, Swansea University, Swansea, United Kingdom; Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute, De Bilt, Netherlands
Recommended Citation:
Trusel L.D.,Frey K.E.,Das S.B.,et al. Divergent trajectories of Antarctic surface melt under two twenty-first-century climate scenarios[J]. Nature Geoscience,2015-01-01,8(12)