DOI: 10.1038/ngeo2560
论文题名: Economic losses from US hurricanes consistent with an influence from climate change
作者: Estrada F. ; Botzen W.J.W. ; Tol R.S.J.
刊名: Nature Geoscience
ISSN: 17520894
出版年: 2015
卷: 8, 期: 11 起始页码: 880
结束页码: 884
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: air temperature
; climate change
; economic analysis
; estimation method
; geophysical method
; hurricane
; natural disaster
; socioeconomic conditions
; spatiotemporal analysis
; statistical application
; vulnerability
; Atlantic Ocean
; Atlantic Ocean (North)
; United States
英文摘要: Warming of the climate system and its impacts on biophysical and human systems have been widely documented. The frequency and intensity of extreme weather events have also changed, but the observed increases in natural disaster losses are often thought to result solely from societal change, such as increases in exposure and vulnerability. Here we analyse the economic losses from tropical cyclones in the United States, using a regression-based approach instead of a standard normalization procedure to changes in exposure and vulnerability, to minimize the chance of introducing a spurious trend. Unlike previous studies, we use statistical models to estimate the contributions of socioeconomic factors to the observed trend in losses and we account for non-normal and nonlinear characteristics of loss data. We identify an upward trend in economic losses between 1900 and 2005 that cannot be explained by commonly used socioeconomic variables. Based on records of geophysical data, we identify an upward trend in both the number and intensity of hurricanes in the North Atlantic basin as well as in the number of loss-generating tropical cyclone records in the United States that is consistent with the smoothed global average rise in surface air temperature. We estimate that, in 2005, US$2 to US$14 billion of the recorded annual losses could be attributable to climate change, 2 to 12% of that year's normalized losses. We suggest that damages from tropical cyclones cannot be dismissed when evaluating the current and future costs of climate change and the expected benefits of mitigation and adaptation strategies. © 2015 Macmillan Publishers Limited. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/106137
Appears in Collections: 气候减缓与适应 科学计划与规划
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作者单位: Centro de Ciencias de la Atmósfera, Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México, Ciudad Universitaria, Mexico DF, Mexico; Institute for Environmental Studies, VU University, Amsterdam, Netherlands; Department of Economics, University of Sussex, Falmer, United Kingdom; Department of Spatial Economics, VU University, Amsterdam, Netherlands; Tinbergen Institute, Amsterdam, Netherlands; CESifo, Munich, Germany
Recommended Citation:
Estrada F.,Botzen W.J.W.,Tol R.S.J.. Economic losses from US hurricanes consistent with an influence from climate change[J]. Nature Geoscience,2015-01-01,8(11)