globalchange  > 气候减缓与适应
DOI: 10.1038/ngeo2539
论文题名:
Coastal vulnerability across the Pacific dominated by El Niño/Southern Oscillation
作者: Barnard P.L.; Short A.D.; Harley M.D.; Splinter K.D.; Vitousek S.; Turner I.L.; Allan J.; Banno M.; Bryan K.R.; Doria A.; Hansen J.E.; Kato S.; Kuriyama Y.; Randall-Goodwin E.; Ruggiero P.; Walker I.J.; Heathfield D.K.
刊名: Nature Geoscience
ISSN: 17520894
出版年: 2015
卷: 8, 期:10
起始页码: 801
结束页码: 807
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: beach ; coastal erosion ; coastal zone ; data assimilation ; El Nino-Southern Oscillation ; extreme event ; future prospect ; La Nina ; spatiotemporal analysis ; storm surge ; vulnerability ; water level ; wave climate ; Pacific Coast [North America] ; Pacific Ocean ; Pacific Ocean (Northeast) ; Pacific Ocean (South) ; Pacific Ocean (West)
英文摘要: To predict future coastal hazards, it is important to quantify any links between climate drivers and spatial patterns of coastal change. However, most studies of future coastal vulnerability do not account for the dynamic components of coastal water levels during storms, notably wave-driven processes, storm surges and seasonal water level anomalies, although these components can add metres to water levels during extreme events. Here we synthesize multi-decadal, co-located data assimilated between 1979 and 2012 that describe wave climate, local water levels and coastal change for 48 beaches throughout the Pacific Ocean basin. We find that observed coastal erosion across the Pacific varies most closely with El Niño/Southern Oscillation, with a smaller influence from the Southern Annular Mode and the Pacific North American pattern. In the northern and southern Pacific Ocean, regional wave and water level anomalies are significantly correlated to a suite of climate indices, particularly during boreal winter; conditions in the northeast Pacific Ocean are often opposite to those in the western and southern Pacific. We conclude that, if projections for an increasing frequency of extreme El Niño and La Niña events over the twenty-first century are confirmed, then populated regions on opposite sides of the Pacific Ocean basin could be alternately exposed to extreme coastal erosion and flooding, independent of sea-level rise. © 2015 Macmillan Publishers Limited. All rights reserved.
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/106157
Appears in Collections:气候减缓与适应
科学计划与规划

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作者单位: United States Geological Survey, Pacific Coastal and Marine Science Center, Santa Cruz, CA, United States; University of Sydney School of Geosciences, Sydney, NSW, Australia; University of Ferrara, Department of Physics and Earth Sciences, Via Saragat 1, Ferrara, Italy; UNSW Australia, Water Research Laboratory, School of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Sydney, NSW, Australia; Oregon Department of Geology and Mineral Industries, Coastal Field Offie, Newport, OR, United States; Port and Airport Research Institute, Nagase 3-1-1, Yokosuka, Kanagawa, Japan; University OfWaikato, Private Bag 3105, Hamilton, New Zealand; Scripps Institution of Oceanography, University of California, San Diego, San Diego, CA, United States; University OfWestern Australia, School of Earth and Environment, 35 Stirling Highway, Crawley, WA, Australia; Toyohashi University of Technology, Aichi, Japan; University of California, Santa Cruz, Department of Ocean Sciences, Santa Cruz, CA, United States; Oregon State University, College of Earth, Ocean, and Atmospheric Sciences, Corvallis, OR, United States; University of Victoria, Coastal Erosion and Dune Dynamics (CEDD) Laboratory, Department of Geography, Victoria, BC, Canada

Recommended Citation:
Barnard P.L.,Short A.D.,Harley M.D.,et al. Coastal vulnerability across the Pacific dominated by El Niño/Southern Oscillation[J]. Nature Geoscience,2015-01-01,8(10)
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