DOI: 10.1038/ngeo2304
论文题名: Sensitivity of climate to cumulative carbon emissions due to compensation of ocean heat and carbon uptake
作者: Goodwin P. ; Williams R.G. ; Ridgwell A.
刊名: Nature Geoscience
ISSN: 17520894
出版年: 2015
卷: 8, 期: 1 起始页码: 29
结束页码: 34
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: air-sea interaction
; carbon emission
; climate modeling
; compensation
; global warming
; nutrient uptake
; sensitivity analysis
英文摘要: Climate model experiments reveal that transient global warming is nearly proportional to cumulative carbon emissions on multi-decadal to centennial timescales. However, it is not quantitatively understood how this near-linear dependence between warming and cumulative carbon emissions arises in transient climate simulations. Here, we present a theoretically derived equation of the dependence of global warming on cumulative carbon emissions over time. For an atmosphere-ocean system, our analysis identifies a surface warming response to cumulative carbon emissions of 1.5 ± 0.7 K for every 1,000 Pg of carbon emitted. This surface warming response is reduced by typically 10-20% by the end of the century and beyond. The climate response remains nearly constant on multi-decadal to centennial timescales as a result of partially opposing effects of oceanic uptake of heat and carbon. The resulting warming then becomes proportional to cumulative carbon emissions after many centuries, as noted earlier. When we incorporate estimates of terrestrial carbon uptake, the surface warming response is reduced to 1.1 ± 0.5 K for every 1,000 Pg of carbon emitted, but this modification is unlikely to significantly affect how the climate response changes over time. We suggest that our theoretical framework may be used to diagnose the global warming response in climate models and mechanistically understand the differences between their projections. © 2014 Macmillan Publishers Limited. All rights reserved. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/106200
Appears in Collections: 气候减缓与适应 科学计划与规划
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作者单位: Department of Ocean and Earth Sciences, National Oceanography Centre Southampton, University of Southampton, Southampton, United Kingdom; Department of Earth, Ocean and Ecological Sciences, School of Environmental Science, University of Liverpool, Liverpool, United Kingdom; School of Geographical Science, University of Bristol, Bristol, United Kingdom
Recommended Citation:
Goodwin P.,Williams R.G.,Ridgwell A.. Sensitivity of climate to cumulative carbon emissions due to compensation of ocean heat and carbon uptake[J]. Nature Geoscience,2015-01-01,8(1)