globalchange  > 气候减缓与适应
DOI: 10.1038/ngeo2407
论文题名:
Projected deglaciation of western Canada in the twenty-first century
作者: Clarke G.K.C.; Jarosch A.H.; Anslow F.S.; Radić V.; Menounos B.
刊名: Nature Geoscience
ISSN: 17520894
出版年: 2015
卷: 8, 期:5
起始页码: 372
结束页码: 377
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: aquatic ecosystem ; deglaciation ; glacier dynamics ; global climate ; ice cover ; mass balance ; meltwater ; numerical model ; paleoclimate ; sea level change ; twenty first century ; water availability ; British Columbia ; Canada
英文摘要: Retreat of mountain glaciers is a significant contributor to sea-level rise and a potential threat to human populations through impacts on water availability and regional hydrology. Like most of Earth's mountain glaciers, those in western North America are experiencing rapid mass loss. Projections of future large-scale mass change are based on surface mass balance models that are open to criticism, because they ignore or greatly simplify glacier physics. Here we use a high-resolution regional glaciation model, developed by coupling physics-based ice dynamics with a surface mass balance model, to project the fate of glaciers in western Canada. We use twenty-first-century climate scenarios from an ensemble of global climate models in our simulations; the results indicate that by 2100, the volume of glacier ice in western Canada will shrink by 70 ± 10% relative to 2005. According to our simulations, few glaciers will remain in the Interior and Rockies regions, but maritime glaciers, in particular those in northwestern British Columbia, will survive in a diminished state. We project the maximum rate of ice volume loss, corresponding to peak input of deglacial meltwater to streams and rivers, to occur around 2020-2040. Potential implications include impacts on aquatic ecosystems, agriculture, forestry, alpine tourism and water quality. © 2015 Macmillan Publishers Limited. All rights reserved.
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/106361
Appears in Collections:气候减缓与适应
科学计划与规划

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作者单位: Department of Earth, Ocean and Atmospheric Sciences, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, BC, Canada; Institute of Earth Sciences, University of Iceland, Reykjavík, Iceland; Pacific Climate Impacts Consortium, University of Victoria, Victoria, BC, Canada; Natural Resources and Environmental Studies Institute and Geography Program, University of Northern British Columbia, Prince George, BC, Canada

Recommended Citation:
Clarke G.K.C.,Jarosch A.H.,Anslow F.S.,et al. Projected deglaciation of western Canada in the twenty-first century[J]. Nature Geoscience,2015-01-01,8(5)
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