globalchange  > 气候减缓与适应
DOI: 10.1038/ngeo2290
论文题名:
Termini of calving glaciers as self-organized critical systems
作者: Aström J.A.; Vallot D.; Schäfer M.; Welty E.Z.; O'Neel S.; Bartholomaus T.C.; Liu Y.; Riikilä T.I.; Zwinger T.; Timonen J.; Moore J.C.
刊名: Nature Geoscience
ISSN: 17520894
出版年: 2014
卷: 7, 期:12
起始页码: 874
结束页码: 878
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: avalanche ; brittle fracture ; climate forcing ; critical analysis ; glacier retreat ; ice sheet ; sea level change ; self organization ; tidewater glacier ; Alaska ; Antarctica ; Arctic ; Greenland ; Svalbard ; Svalbard and Jan Mayen ; United States ; Abelia
英文摘要: Over the next century, one of the largest contributions to sea level rise will come from ice sheets and glaciers calving ice into the ocean. Factors controlling the rapid and nonlinear variations in calving fluxes are poorly understood, and therefore difficult to include in prognostic climate-forced land-ice models. Here we analyse globally distributed calving data sets from Svalbard, Alaska (USA), Greenland and Antarctica in combination with simulations from a first-principles, particle-based numerical calving model to investigate the size and inter-event time of calving events. We find that calving events triggered by the brittle fracture of glacier ice are governed by the same power-law distributions as avalanches in the canonical Abelian sandpile model. This similarity suggests that calving termini behave as self-organized critical systems that readily flip between states of sub-critical advance and super-critical retreat in response to changes in climate and geometric conditions. Observations of sudden ice-shelf collapse and tidewater glacier retreat in response to gradual warming of their environment are consistent with a system fluctuating around its critical point in response to changing external forcing. We propose that self-organized criticality provides a yet unexplored framework for investigations into calving and projections of sea level rise. © 2014 Macmillan Publishers Limited.
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/106545
Appears in Collections:气候减缓与适应
科学计划与规划

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作者单位: CSC-IT Centre for Science, PO Box 405, Espoo, Finland; Department of Earth Science, Uppsala University, Villavägen 16, Uppsala, Sweden; Arctic Centre, University of Lapland, Rovaniemi, Finland; Finnish Meteorological Institute, PO Box 503, Helsinki, Finland; Institute of Arctic and Alpine Research, University of Colorado, Campus Box 450, Boulder, CO, United States; Alaska Science Center, US Geological Survey, 4210 University Drive, Anchorage, AK, United States; University of Texas, Institute for Geophysics, 10100 Burnet Road (R2200), Austin, TX, United States; State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology, College of Global Change and Earth System Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, China; Department of Physics and Nanoscience Center, University of Jyväskylä, PO Box 35, Jyväskylä, Finland; ITMO University, Kronverkskii ave. 49, Saint-Petersburg, Russian Federation

Recommended Citation:
Aström J.A.,Vallot D.,Schäfer M.,et al. Termini of calving glaciers as self-organized critical systems[J]. Nature Geoscience,2014-01-01,7(12)
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