DOI: 10.1038/ngeo1988
论文题名: Probability of US heat waves affected by a subseasonal planetary wave pattern
作者: Teng H. ; Branstator G. ; Wang H. ; Meehl G.A. ; Washington W.M.
刊名: Nature Geoscience
ISSN: 17520894
出版年: 2013
卷: 6, 期: 12 起始页码: 1056
结束页码: 1061
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: atmospheric convection
; atmospheric dynamics
; atmospheric general circulation model
; climate prediction
; heating
; planetary wave
; wave modeling
; weather forecasting
; United States
英文摘要: Heat waves are thought to result from subseasonal atmospheric variability. Atmospheric phenomena driven by tropical convection, such as the Asian monsoon, have been considered potential sources of predictability on subseasonal timescales. Mid-latitude atmospheric dynamics have been considered too chaotic to allow significant prediction skill of lead times beyond the typical 10-day range of weather forecasts. Here we use a 12,000-year integration of an atmospheric general circulation model to identify a pattern of subseasonal atmospheric variability that can help improve forecast skill for heat waves in the United States. We find that heat waves tend to be preceded by 15-20 days by a pattern of anomalous atmospheric planetary waves with a wavenumber of 5. This circulation pattern can arise as a result of internal atmospheric dynamics and is not necessarily linked to tropical heating. We conclude that some mid-latitude circulation anomalies that increase the probability of heat waves are predictable beyond the typical weather forecast range. © 2013 Macmillan Publishers Limited. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/106651
Appears in Collections: 气候减缓与适应 科学计划与规划
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作者单位: National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO 80305, United States; SSAI, Hampton, VA 23666, United States
Recommended Citation:
Teng H.,Branstator G.,Wang H.,et al. Probability of US heat waves affected by a subseasonal planetary wave pattern[J]. Nature Geoscience,2013-01-01,6(12)