DOI: 10.1038/ngeo1896
论文题名: Rising river flows throughout the twenty-first century in two Himalayan glacierized watersheds
作者: Immerzeel W.W. ; Pellicciotti F. ; Bierkens M.F.P.
刊名: Nature Geoscience
ISSN: 17520894
出版年: 2013
卷: 6, 期: 9 起始页码: 742
结束页码: 745
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: climate change
; climate modeling
; glacier dynamics
; glacier mass balance
; glacier retreat
; hydrological modeling
; hydrological response
; meltwater
; monsoon
; river basin
; river flow
; twenty first century
; water availability
; water demand
; watershed
; Bagmati
; Baltoro Glacier
; Ganges River
; Gilgit-Baltistan
; Himalayas
; Indus River
; Langtang Valley
; Nepal
; Pakistan
英文摘要: Greater Himalayan glaciers are retreating and losing mass at rates comparable to glaciers in other regions of the world. Assessments of future changes and their associated hydrological impacts are scarce, oversimplify glacier dynamics or include a limited number of climate models. Here, we use results from the latest ensemble of climate models in combination with a high-resolution glacio-hydrological model to assess the hydrological impact of climate change on two climatically contrasting watersheds in the Greater Himalaya, the Baltoro and Langtang watersheds that drain into the Indus and Ganges rivers, respectively. We show that the largest uncertainty in future runoff is a result of variations in projected precipitation between climate models. In both watersheds, strong, but highly variable, increases in future runoff are projected and, despite the different characteristics of the watersheds, their responses are surprisingly similar. In both cases, glaciers will recede but net glacier melt runoff is on a rising limb at least until 2050. In combination with a positive change in precipitation, water availability during this century is not likely to decline. We conclude that river basins that depend on monsoon rains and glacier melt will continue to sustain the increasing water demands expected in these areas. © 2013 Macmillan Publishers Limited. All rights reserved. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/106701
Appears in Collections: 气候减缓与适应 科学计划与规划
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作者单位: Department of Physical Geography, Utrecht University, PO Box 80115, Utrecht, Netherlands; ETH Zurich, Institute of Environmental Engineering, Hydrology and Water Resources Management, Wolfgang-Pauli-Str. 15, 8093 Zurich, Switzerland; Deltares, PO Box 85467, 3508 AL Utrecht, Netherlands
Recommended Citation:
Immerzeel W.W.,Pellicciotti F.,Bierkens M.F.P.. Rising river flows throughout the twenty-first century in two Himalayan glacierized watersheds[J]. Nature Geoscience,2013-01-01,6(9)