DOI: 10.1038/ngeo1799
论文题名: Robust direct effect of carbon dioxide on tropical circulation and regional precipitation
作者: Bony S. ; Bellon G. ; Klocke D. ; Sherwood S. ; Fermepin S. ; Denvil S.
刊名: Nature Geoscience
ISSN: 17520894
出版年: 2013
卷: 6, 期: 6 起始页码: 447
结束页码: 451
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: atmospheric circulation
; carbon dioxide
; climate modeling
; fossil fuel
; global warming
; hydrological cycle
; precipitation (climatology)
; tropical region
; twenty first century
; water vapor
英文摘要: Predicting the response of tropical rainfall to climate change remains a challenge. Rising concentrations of carbon dioxide are expected to affect the hydrological cycle through increases in global mean temperature and the water vapour content of the atmosphere. However, regional precipitation changes also closely depend on the atmospheric circulation, which is expected to weaken in a warmer world. Here, we assess the effect of a rise in atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations on tropical circulation and precipitation by analysing results from a suite of simulations from multiple state-of-the-art climate models, and an operational numerical weather prediction model. In a scenario in which humans continue to use fossil fuels unabated, about half the tropical circulation change projected by the end of the twenty-first century, and consequently a large fraction of the regional precipitation change, is independent of global surface warming. Instead, these robust circulation and precipitation changes are a consequence of the weaker net radiative cooling of the atmosphere associated with higher atmospheric carbon dioxide levels, which affects the strength of atmospheric vertical motions. This implies that geo-engineering schemes aimed at reducing global warming without removing carbon dioxide from the atmosphere would fail to fully mitigate precipitation changes in the tropics. Strategies that may help constrain rainfall projections are suggested. © 2013 Macmillan Publishers Limited. All rights reserved. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/106776
Appears in Collections: 气候减缓与适应 科学计划与规划
There are no files associated with this item.
作者单位: LMD/IPSL, CNRS, Université Pierre et Marie Curie, 75252 Paris, France; CNRM/GAME, CNRS, Météo-France, 31057 Toulouse, France; European Centre for Medium-RangeWeather Forecasts, Reading RG2 9AX, United Kingdom; CCRC and Centre of Excellence for Climate System Science, University of New South Wales, Sydney, NS 2052, Australia
Recommended Citation:
Bony S.,Bellon G.,Klocke D.,et al. Robust direct effect of carbon dioxide on tropical circulation and regional precipitation[J]. Nature Geoscience,2013-01-01,6(6)