DOI: 10.1002/2016GL069748
论文题名: Real-time forecast of aftershocks from a single seismic station signal
作者: Lippiello E. ; Cirillo A. ; Godano G. ; Papadimitriou E. ; Karakostas V.
刊名: Geophysical Research Letters
ISSN: 0094-9723
EISSN: 1944-9454
出版年: 2016
卷: 43, 期: 12 起始页码: 6252
结束页码: 6258
语种: 英语
英文关键词: aftershock clustering
; catalog incompleteness
; seismic forecasting
Scopus关键词: Forecasting
; Geophysics
; Seismic waves
; Seismology
; Aftershock clustering
; Catalog incompleteness
; Earthquake location
; Fitting parameters
; Large earthquakes
; Occurrence probability
; Real-time forecasts
; Site of interests
; Earthquakes
英文摘要: The evaluation of seismic hazard in the hours following large earthquakes is strongly affected by biases due to difficulties in determining earthquake location. This leads to the huge incompleteness of instrumental catalogs. Here we show that if, on the one hand, the overlap of aftershock coda waves hides many small events, on the other hand, it leads to a well-determined empirical law controlling the decay of the amplitude of the seismic signal at a given site. The fitting parameters of this law can be related to those controlling the temporal decay of the aftershock number, and it is then possible to obtain short-term postseismic occurrence probability from a single recorded seismic signal. We therefore present a novel procedure which, without requiring earthquake location, produces more accurate and almost real-time forecast, in a site of interest, directly from the signal of a seismic station installed at that site. ©2016. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved. URL: https://www.scopus.com/inward/record.uri?eid=2-s2.0-84978110479&doi=10.1002%2f2016GL069748&partnerID=40&md5=baf32d40afbc1f3646e367907b45427f
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/10686
Appears in Collections: 科学计划与规划 气候变化与战略
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作者单位: Department of Mathematics and Physics and CNISM, Second University of Naples, Caserta, Italy
Recommended Citation:
Lippiello E.,Cirillo A.,Godano G.,et al. Real-time forecast of aftershocks from a single seismic station signal[J]. Geophysical Research Letters,2016-01-01,43(12).