| DOI: | 10.1002/2016GL068971
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| 论文题名: | Do climate models reproduce complexity of observed sea level changes? |
| 作者: | Becker M.; Karpytchev M.; Marcos M.; Jevrejeva S.; Lennartz-Sassinek S.
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| 刊名: | Geophysical Research Letters
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| ISSN: | 0094-9728
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| EISSN: | 1944-9459
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| 出版年: | 2016
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| 卷: | 43, 期:10 | | 起始页码: | 5176
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| 结束页码: | 5184
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| 语种: | 英语
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| 英文关键词: | AOGCM skill
; CMIP5
; long-term correlation
; sea level
; tide gauge
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| Scopus关键词: | Gages
; Sea level
; Tide gages
; AOGCM skill
; Atmosphere ocean general circulation models
; CMIP5
; Long-term correlations
; Power law scalings
; Scaling properties
; Statistical behavior
; Tide gauges
; Climate models
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| 英文摘要: | The ability of Atmosphere-Ocean General Circulation Models (AOGCMs) to capture the statistical behavior of sea level (SL) fluctuations has been assessed at the local scale. To do so, we have compared scaling behavior of the SL fluctuations simulated in the historical runs of 36 CMIP5 AOGCMs to that in the longest (>100 years) SL records from 23 tides gauges around the globe. The observed SL fluctuations are known to manifest a power law scaling. We have checked if the SL changes simulated in the AOGCM exhibit the same scaling properties and the long-term correlations as observed in the tide gauge records. We find that the majority of AOGCMs overestimates the scaling of SL fluctuations, particularly in the North Atlantic. Consequently, AOGCMs, routinely used to project regional SL rise, may underestimate the part of the externally driven SL rise, in particular the anthropogenic footprint, in the projections for the 21st century. ©2016. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved. |
| URL: | https://www.scopus.com/inward/record.uri?eid=2-s2.0-84971010969&doi=10.1002%2f2016GL068971&partnerID=40&md5=67cff96c973c25777cf5723e7a171a73
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| Citation statistics: |
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| 资源类型: | 期刊论文
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| 标识符: | http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/10691
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| Appears in Collections: | 科学计划与规划
气候变化与战略
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作者单位: | LEGOS/IRD UMR 5566, Toulouse, France
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| Recommended Citation: | |
Becker M.,Karpytchev M.,Marcos M.,et al. Do climate models reproduce complexity of observed sea level changes?[J]. Geophysical Research Letters,2016-01-01,43(10).
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