DOI: 10.1002/2016GL069314
论文题名: Using timing of ice retreat to predict timing of fall freeze-up in the Arctic
作者: Stroeve J.C. ; Crawford A.D. ; Stammerjohn S.
刊名: Geophysical Research Letters
ISSN: 0094-9734
EISSN: 1944-9465
出版年: 2016
卷: 43, 期: 12 起始页码: 6332
结束页码: 6340
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Arctic sea ice
; seasonal forecasting
Scopus关键词: Forecasting
; Sea ice
; Arctic sea ice
; East-siberian seas
; Environmental emergencies
; Ice albedo feedback
; Ocean heat uptake
; Predictive power
; Seasonal forecasting
; Statistical modeling
; Ice
英文摘要: Reliable forecasts of the timing of sea ice advance are needed in order to reduce risks associated with operating in the Arctic as well as planning of human and environmental emergencies. This study investigates the use of a simple statistical model relating the timing of ice retreat to the timing of ice advance, taking advantage of the inherent predictive power supplied by the seasonal ice-albedo feedback and ocean heat uptake. Results show that using the last retreat date to predict the first advance date is applicable in some regions, such as Baffin Bay and the Laptev and East Siberian seas, where a predictive skill is found even after accounting for the long-term trend in both variables. Elsewhere, in the Arctic, there is some predictive skills depending on the year (e.g., Kara and Beaufort seas), but none in regions such as the Barents and Bering seas or the Sea of Okhotsk. While there is some suggestion that the relationship is strengthening over time, this may reflect that higher correlations are expected during periods when the underlying trend is strong. ©2016. The Authors. URL: https://www.scopus.com/inward/record.uri?eid=2-s2.0-84983349040&doi=10.1002%2f2016GL069314&partnerID=40&md5=d663205668e3a694528db00bba1040a7
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/10697
Appears in Collections: 科学计划与规划 气候变化与战略
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作者单位: National Snow and Ice Data Center, Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences, University of Colorado Boulder, Boulder, CO, United States
Recommended Citation:
Stroeve J.C.,Crawford A.D.,Stammerjohn S.. Using timing of ice retreat to predict timing of fall freeze-up in the Arctic[J]. Geophysical Research Letters,2016-01-01,43(12).