DOI: 10.1111/ele.12948
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-85044582150
论文题名: Indicators of transitions in biological systems
作者: Clements C.F. ; Ozgul A.
刊名: Ecology Letters
ISSN: 1461023X
EISSN: 1461-0248
出版年: 2018
卷: 21, 期: 6 起始页码: 905
结束页码: 919
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Critical slowing down
; early warning signals
; leading indicators
; predictive ecology
; regime shifts
; resilience
; tipping points
; traits
英文摘要: In the face of global biodiversity declines, predicting the fate of biological systems is a key goal in ecology. One popular approach is the search for early warning signals (EWSs) based on alternative stable states theory. In this review, we cover the theory behind nonlinearity in dynamic systems and techniques to detect the loss of resilience that can indicate state transitions. We describe the research done on generic abundance-based signals of instability that are derived from the phenomenon of critical slowing down, which represent the genesis of EWSs research. We highlight some of the issues facing the detection of such signals in biological systems – which are inherently complex and show low signal-to-noise ratios. We then document research on alternative signals of instability, including measuring shifts in spatial autocorrelation and trait dynamics, and discuss potential future directions for EWSs research based on detailed demographic and phenotypic data. We set EWSs research in the greater field of predictive ecology and weigh up the costs and benefits of simplicity vs. complexity in predictive models, and how the available data should steer the development of future methods. Finally, we identify some key unanswered questions that, if solved, could improve the applicability of these methods. © 2018 John Wiley & Sons Ltd/CNRS Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/107434
Appears in Collections: 气候减缓与适应
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作者单位: School of Biosciences, The University of Melbourne, Parkville, VIC, Australia; Department of Evolutionary Biology and Environmental Studies, University of Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland
Recommended Citation:
Clements C.F.,Ozgul A.. Indicators of transitions in biological systems[J]. Ecology Letters,2018-01-01,21(6)