globalchange  > 气候减缓与适应
DOI: 10.1111/ele.12927
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-85043713125
论文题名:
The predictability of a lake phytoplankton community, over time-scales of hours to years
作者: Thomas M.K.; Fontana S.; Reyes M.; Kehoe M.; Pomati F.
刊名: Ecology Letters
ISSN: 1461023X
EISSN: 1461-0248
出版年: 2018
卷: 21, 期:5
起始页码: 619
结束页码: 628
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Cyanobacteria ; environmental monitoring ; forecasting ; machine learning ; phytoplankton ; prediction ; time series
Scopus关键词: algae ; Cyanobacteria ; Eukaryota
英文摘要: Forecasting changes to ecological communities is one of the central challenges in ecology. However, nonlinear dependencies, biotic interactions and data limitations have limited our ability to assess how predictable communities are. Here, we used a machine learning approach and environmental monitoring data (biological, physical and chemical) to assess the predictability of phytoplankton cell density in one lake across an unprecedented range of time-scales. Communities were highly predictable over hours to months: model R2 decreased from 0.89 at 4 hours to 0.74 at 1 month, and in a long-term dataset lacking fine spatial resolution, from 0.46 at 1 month to 0.32 at 10 years. When cyanobacterial and eukaryotic algal cell densities were examined separately, model-inferred environmental growth dependencies matched laboratory studies, and suggested novel trade-offs governing their competition. High-frequency monitoring and machine learning can set prediction targets for process-based models and help elucidate the mechanisms underlying ecological dynamics. © 2018 John Wiley & Sons Ltd/CNRS
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/107464
Appears in Collections:气候减缓与适应

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作者单位: Department of Aquatic Ecology, Eawag: Swiss Federal Institute of Aquatic Science and Technology, Dübendorf, Switzerland; Centre for Ocean Life, DTU Aqua, Technical University of Denmark, Lyngby, Denmark; Biodiversity and Conservation Biology, Swiss Federal Research Institute WSL, Birmensdorf, Switzerland; Global Institute for Water Security and School of Environment and Sustainability, University of Saskatchewan, Saskatechwan, Saskatoon, Canada; Institute of Integrative Biology, Swiss Federal Institute of Technology (ETH)Zürich, Switzerland

Recommended Citation:
Thomas M.K.,Fontana S.,Reyes M.,et al. The predictability of a lake phytoplankton community, over time-scales of hours to years[J]. Ecology Letters,2018-01-01,21(5)
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