DOI: 10.1111/ele.12696
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84996593771
论文题名: Incorporating evolutionary adaptation in species distribution modelling reduces projected vulnerability to climate change
作者: Bush A. ; Mokany K. ; Catullo R. ; Hoffmann A. ; Kellermann V. ; Sgrò C. ; McEvey S. ; Ferrier S.
刊名: Ecology Letters
ISSN: 1461023X
EISSN: 1461-0248
出版年: 2016
卷: 19, 期: 12 起始页码: 1468
结束页码: 1478
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Drosophila
; niche model
; phenotypic plasticity
; physiological tolerances
; thermal tolerance
Scopus关键词: Drosophilidae
; adaptation
; animal
; animal dispersal
; Australia
; biological model
; climate change
; Drosophila
; evolution
; genetics
; physiology
; reproductive fitness
; species difference
; Adaptation, Physiological
; Animal Distribution
; Animals
; Australia
; Biological Evolution
; Climate Change
; Drosophila
; Genetic Fitness
; Models, Biological
; Species Specificity
英文摘要: Based on the sensitivity of species to ongoing climate change, and numerous challenges they face tracking suitable conditions, there is growing interest in species' capacity to adapt to climatic stress. Here, we develop and apply a new generic modelling approach (AdaptR) that incorporates adaptive capacity through physiological limits, phenotypic plasticity, evolutionary adaptation and dispersal into a species distribution modelling framework. Using AdaptR to predict change in the distribution of 17 species of Australian fruit flies (Drosophilidae), we show that accounting for adaptive capacity reduces projected range losses by up to 33% by 2105. We identify where local adaptation is likely to occur and apply sensitivity analyses to identify the critical factors of interest when parameters are uncertain. Our study suggests some species could be less vulnerable than previously thought, and indicates that spatiotemporal adaptive models could help improve management interventions that support increased species' resilience to climate change. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd/CNRS Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/107695
Appears in Collections: 气候减缓与适应
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作者单位: CSIRO Land and Water, Canberra, Australia; Biological Sciences, Macquarie University, Sydney, Australia; School of Science and Health, Western Sydney University, Australia; Melbourne University, Melbourne, Australia; Monash University, Melbourne, Australia; Australian Museum, Sydney, Australia
Recommended Citation:
Bush A.,Mokany K.,Catullo R.,et al. Incorporating evolutionary adaptation in species distribution modelling reduces projected vulnerability to climate change[J]. Ecology Letters,2016-01-01,19(12)