DOI: 10.1111/ele.12599
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84963903953
论文题名: Predicting when climate-driven phenotypic change affects population dynamics
作者: Mclean N. ; Lawson C.R. ; Leech D.I. ; van de Pol M.
刊名: Ecology Letters
ISSN: 1461023X
EISSN: 1461-0248
出版年: 2016
卷: 19, 期: 6 起始页码: 595
结束页码: 608
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Birds
; Climate change
; Comparative
; Demographic rates
; Functional traits
; Phenology
; Population dynamics
; Species responses
; Trait
Scopus关键词: analytical framework
; bird
; climate change
; comparative study
; demography
; environmental response
; functional role
; life history trait
; phenotype
; population dynamics
; population growth
; prediction
; prioritization
; Aves
; animal
; biological model
; bird
; climate change
; phenotype
; physiology
; population dynamics
; population growth
; reproduction
; Animals
; Birds
; Climate Change
; Models, Biological
; Phenotype
; Population Dynamics
; Population Growth
; Reproduction
英文摘要: Species' responses to climate change are variable and diverse, yet our understanding of how different responses (e.g. physiological, behavioural, demographic) relate and how they affect the parameters most relevant for conservation (e.g. population persistence) is lacking. Despite this, studies that observe changes in one type of response typically assume that effects on population dynamics will occur, perhaps fallaciously. We use a hierarchical framework to explain and test when impacts of climate on traits (e.g. phenology) affect demographic rates (e.g. reproduction) and in turn population dynamics. Using this conceptual framework, we distinguish four mechanisms that can prevent lower-level responses from impacting population dynamics. Testable hypotheses were identified from the literature that suggest life-history and ecological characteristics which could predict when these mechanisms are likely to be important. A quantitative example on birds illustrates how, even with limited data and without fully-parameterized population models, new insights can be gained; differences among species in the impacts of climate-driven phenological changes on population growth were not explained by the number of broods or density dependence. Our approach helps to predict the types of species in which climate sensitivities of phenotypic traits have strong demographic and population consequences, which is crucial for conservation prioritization of data-deficient species. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd/CNRS. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/107760
Appears in Collections: 气候减缓与适应
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作者单位: Division of Evolution, Ecology and Genetics, Research School of Biology, The Australian National University, Daley Road, Canberra, ACT, Australia; Department of Animal Ecology, Netherlands Institute of Ecology (NIOO-KNAW), Droevendaalsesteeg 10, Wageningen, Netherlands; British Trust for Ornithology, The Nunnery, Thetford, Norfolk, United Kingdom
Recommended Citation:
Mclean N.,Lawson C.R.,Leech D.I.,et al. Predicting when climate-driven phenotypic change affects population dynamics[J]. Ecology Letters,2016-01-01,19(6)