DOI: 10.1016/j.atmosres.2018.05.019
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-85048269593
论文题名: Copula-based probabilistic characterization of precipitation extremes over North Sikkim Himalaya
作者: Goswami U.P. ; Hazra B. ; Goyal M.K.
刊名: Atmospheric Research
ISSN: 1698095
出版年: 2018
卷: 212 起始页码: 273
结束页码: 284
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Climate change
; CMIP5
; Copula
; Himalaya
; Joint return period (JRP)
; Precipitation extreme indices
Scopus关键词: Climate change
; Distribution functions
; Drought
; Floods
; CMIP5
; Copula
; Himalayas
; Joint return period
; Precipitation extremes
; Climate models
; climate change
; CMIP
; downscaling
; extreme event
; precipitation assessment
; precipitation intensity
; probability
; return period
; Himalayas
; Sikkim Himalayas
英文摘要: Changes in climate extremes are studied based on the daily precipitation in North Sikkim Himalaya. The Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) Global Climate Models GCMs) and their Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) and India Meteorological Department (IMD) daily precipitation dataset are used for future and observed time periods, respectively. The purpose of this study is to examine the copula-based probabilistic behavior of precipitation extremes over the eastern Himalayan region. Seven extreme combinations were developed based on the eight defined precipitation indices. The extreme combination designates the duration, frequency and amount of heavy and weak precipitation in the same year. Statistical downscaling model (SDSM) and copulas are used for downscaling and bivariate behavior of precipitation extremes, respectively. Trend analysis result exhibits that the precipitation and its extremes (intensity, wet days, heavy precipitation days and very heavy precipitation days) are increasing significantly during 2006–2100. The spatial distributions of joint return period (JRP) of (T5, T10 and T20) marginal values are quite same during 1979–2005. In addition, the co-occurrences of heavy and weak precipitation would be more frequent in future, resulting higher risk of floods and droughts within the same year. The North Sikkim region may be at high risk of floods because precipitation extremes are increasing along with co-occurrence of flood and drought in the same year. © 2018 Elsevier B.V. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/108828
Appears in Collections: 影响、适应和脆弱性 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: Department of Civil Engineering, Indian Institute of Technology, Guwahati, 781039, India; Discipline of Civil Engineering, Indian Institute of Technology, Indore, 453552, India
Recommended Citation:
Goswami U.P.,Hazra B.,Goyal M.K.. Copula-based probabilistic characterization of precipitation extremes over North Sikkim Himalaya[J]. Atmospheric Research,2018-01-01,212