DOI: 10.1016/j.atmosres.2018.03.010
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-85045406972
论文题名: Forecasting severe convective storms with WRF-based RTFDDA radar data assimilation in Guangdong, China
作者: Huang Y. ; Liu Y. ; Xu M. ; Liu Y. ; Pan L. ; Wang H. ; Cheng W.Y.Y. ; Jiang Y. ; Lan H. ; Yang H. ; Wei X. ; Zong R. ; Cao C.
刊名: Atmospheric Research
ISSN: 1698095
出版年: 2018
卷: 209 起始页码: 131
结束页码: 143
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Latent heating
; Nowcasting
; Radar data assimilation
; RTFDDA
; Severe convective storms
Scopus关键词: Clouds
; Heat convection
; Latent heat
; Precipitation (meteorology)
; Radar
; Reflection
; Storms
; Convective storms
; Four-dimensional data assimilation
; Nowcasting
; Precipitation forecast
; Precipitation forecasting
; Radar data assimilation
; RTFDDA
; Weather research and forecasting
; Weather forecasting
; atmospheric convection
; convective system
; data assimilation
; latent heat flux
; nowcasting
; radar
; reflectivity
; stratiform cloud
; China
; Guangdong
英文摘要: Radar data assimilation is an important method for short-term convection forecasting or nowcasting. To improve the short-term (mainly 0–3 h) precipitation forecasts for severe convective storms, an analysis nudging (Newtonian relaxation) based hydrometeor and latent heat nudging (HLHN) technique was developed to effectively assimilate radar reflectivity data in a Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF)-based real time four-dimensional data assimilation and short-term forecasting system (RTFDDA). The purpose of this study is to investigate the performance of the RTFDDA system with radar data assimilation (RTFDDA-RDA) with rapid-cycling forecasting applications for Shenzhen, a subtropical coastal metropolis in southern China. The RTFDDA-RDA system was run to produce hindcasts for ten severe convective storm events occurred in Guangdong region during the 2017 rainy season. Results show that, through nudging cloud hydrometeors retrieved from radar reflectivity and the associated latent heat release, RTFDDA-RDA is able to produce the meso- and convective-scale features of the convective storms in a good accuracy and improve the short-term precipitation forecasting of the convective storms. Subjective and statistical evaluation results demonstrate that RTFDDA-RDA presents a reasonable capability for forecasting convective systems with improving the initial conditions and resulting in significant improvements of precipitation forecasting skills, especially for the 0–3-h nowcasting range. The sensitivity experiments on different latent heating schemes show that, the convective-stratiform separated heating scheme has the best performance of forecasts. Finally, intercomparison of different radar data assimilation approaches will be conducted in future. © 2018 Elsevier B.V. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/108861
Appears in Collections: 影响、适应和脆弱性 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), Boulder, CO, United States; Meteorological Bureau of Shenzhen Municipality, Shenzhen, 518040, China; Chinese Electric Power Research Institute, Beijing, China
Recommended Citation:
Huang Y.,Liu Y.,Xu M.,et al. Forecasting severe convective storms with WRF-based RTFDDA radar data assimilation in Guangdong, China[J]. Atmospheric Research,2018-01-01,209