DOI: 10.1016/j.atmosres.2017.09.021
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-85030764724
论文题名: Spatial verification approaches as a tool to evaluate the performance of high resolution precipitation forecasts
作者: Gofa F. ; Boucouvala D. ; Louka P. ; Flocas H.A.
刊名: Atmospheric Research
ISSN: 1698095
出版年: 2018
卷: 208 起始页码: 78
结束页码: 87
语种: 英语
英文关键词: COSMO-GR model
; H-SAF precipitation estimation
; Mediterranean convective event
; NWP model evaluation
; Verification, spatial methods
Scopus关键词: Weather forecasting
; Convective events
; Forecasting performance
; Numerical weather prediction models
; NWP model
; Precipitation estimation
; Precipitation structure
; Precipitation threshold
; Verification framework
; Forecasting
; convective system
; model validation
; numerical model
; performance assessment
; precipitation assessment
; spatial analysis
; weather forecasting
; Mediterranean Region
英文摘要: The spatial resolution of Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) models has increased significantly in recent years. While high-resolution models are able to produce more detailed precipitation structures, their true benefit lies in more realistic statistics rather than the information provided for a specific grid point. Unfortunately, NWP model verification using traditional grid-point-by-grid-point methods has not managed to keep pace due to the limited amount of point observations available in comparable resolution. Spatial verification methods represent a possible solution since they reward closeness or resemblance by relaxing the requirement for exact matches between the forecast and observations. An intense convective event in the Mediterranean region is used as a test case to analyze the forecasting performance of the Consortium for Small-scale Modeling model (COSMO) at two different resolutions. Satellite estimates of precipitation are used as ground truth. The precipitation forecasts are assessed using various spatial methods and averaging techniques, each of which provides distinctly useful information on model performance. The results from this particular test case indicate that a neighbourhood verification framework as well as the use of the Structure, Amplitude and Location (SAL) index, which belongs to the object-based methods, can identify the scales and precipitation thresholds at which the fine resolution configuration (COSMO-GR3) provides more accurate forecasts than the coarser resolution configuration (COSMO-GR7) and is therefore worth the additional computational burden. Additional insight is gained by comparing the results of various spatial methods with traditional verification metrics based on point observations. Finally, it is demonstrated that the interpolation method used in the adaptation of data at various scales can, in some cases, influence verification results as much as model resolution. © 2017 Elsevier B.V. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/108885
Appears in Collections: 影响、适应和脆弱性 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: Hellenic National Meteorological Service, Hellinikon GR-16777, Athens, Greece; Department of Mathematics and Physics, Hellenic Air Force Academy, Athens, Greece; Division of Environmental Physics and Meteorology, Department of Physics, National & Kapodistrian University of Athens, Greece
Recommended Citation:
Gofa F.,Boucouvala D.,Louka P.,et al. Spatial verification approaches as a tool to evaluate the performance of high resolution precipitation forecasts[J]. Atmospheric Research,2018-01-01,208