DOI: 10.1016/j.atmosres.2018.02.017
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-85043460316
论文题名: Evaluation of wintertime precipitation forecasts over the Australian Snowy Mountains
作者: Huang Y. ; Chubb T. ; Sarmadi F. ; Siems S.T. ; Manton M.J. ; Franklin C.N. ; Ebert E.
刊名: Atmospheric Research
ISSN: 1698095
出版年: 2018
卷: 207 起始页码: 42
结束页码: 61
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Australian Snowy Mountains
; Cloud thermodynamic phase
; Lower-atmosphere stability
; Orographic precipitation
; Quantitative precipitation forecast
; Synoptic regimes
Scopus关键词: Earth (planet)
; Forecasting
; Landforms
; Weather forecasting
; Australian Snowy Mountains
; Lower atmosphere
; Orographic precipitation
; Quantitative precipitation forecast
; Synoptic regimes
; Precipitation (meteorology)
; climate modeling
; forecasting method
; orography
; precipitation (climatology)
; synoptic meteorology
; thermodynamics
; weather forecasting
; winter
; Australia
; Australian Alps
; Snowy Mountains
英文摘要: This study evaluates the Australian Community Climate and Earth-System Simulator (ACCESS) Numerical Weather Prediction system in forecasting precipitation across the Australian Snowy Mountains for two cool seasons. Metrics based on seasonal accumulated and daily precipitation show that the model is able to reproduce the observed domain-mean accumulated precipitation reasonably well (with a slight overestimation), but this is, in part, due to a compensation of various errors. Both the frequency and intensity of the heavy precipitation days (domain-mean daily precipitation >5 mm day−1) are overrepresented, particularly over the complex terrain and high-elevation areas, whereas the frequency of the very light precipitation days (domain-mean daily precipitation <1 mm day−1) is underestimated, primarily over lower-elevation areas both upwind and downwind of the mountains. Most of the precipitation is forecasted by the grid-scale precipitation scheme, with appreciable snowfalls predicted over the high elevations. The model also demonstrates appreciable skill in reproducing the synoptic regimes. The proportion of the forecast precipitation for each regime is comparable to the observations, although the orographic enhancement over the western slopes of the mountains is more pronounced in the forecasts, particularly for the wetter regimes. An examination on the effect of the lower-atmosphere stability suggests that most of the precipitation (50–70% over the high elevations) is produced under the “unblocked” condition, which is diagnosed 31% of the time. The remainder is produced under the “blocked” condition. Combined with a case study, potential sources of error associated with the forecast precipitation biases are also discussed. © 2018 Elsevier B.V. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/108899
Appears in Collections: 影响、适应和脆弱性 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: School of Earth, Atmosphere and Environment, Monash University, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia; Australian Research Council (ARC) Centre of Excellence for Climate System Science, Monash University, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia; Snowy Hydro Ltd., Sydney, New South Wales, Australia; Australian Bureau of Meteorology, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia
Recommended Citation:
Huang Y.,Chubb T.,Sarmadi F.,et al. Evaluation of wintertime precipitation forecasts over the Australian Snowy Mountains[J]. Atmospheric Research,2018-01-01,207