DOI: 10.1016/j.atmosres.2018.02.004
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-85044322016
论文题名: Recurrence quantification analysis of extremes of maximum and minimum temperature patterns for different climate scenarios in the Mesochora catchment in Central-Western Greece
作者: Panagoulia D. ; Vlahogianni E.I.
刊名: Atmospheric Research
ISSN: 1698095
出版年: 2018
卷: 205 起始页码: 33
结束页码: 47
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Confidence bounds
; Downscaled temperature
; ECHAM4 GCM
; Extreme temperature patterns
; Nonlinear recurrence analysis
Scopus关键词: Carbon dioxide
; Catchments
; Earth atmosphere
; Multivariable control systems
; Phase space methods
; Runoff
; Water resources
; Atmospheric circulation patterns
; Atmospheric general circulation models
; Confidence bounds
; ECHAM4 GCM
; Extreme temperatures
; Maximum and minimum temperatures
; Recurrence analysis
; Recurrence quantification analysis
; Climate models
; atmospheric general circulation model
; climate modeling
; climate prediction
; downscaling
; extreme event
; historical record
; nonlinearity
; temperature anomaly
; Greece
; Mesochora
; Thessaly
; Trikala
英文摘要: A methodological framework based on nonlinear recurrence analysis is proposed to examine the historical data evolution of extremes of maximum and minimum daily mean areal temperature patterns over time under different climate scenarios. The methodology is based on both historical data and atmospheric General Circulation Model (GCM) produced climate scenarios for the periods 1961–2000 and 2061–2100 which correspond to 1 × CO2 and 2 × CO2 scenarios. Historical data were derived from the actual daily observations coupled with atmospheric circulation patterns (CPs). The dynamics of the temperature was reconstructed in the phase-space from the time series of temperatures. The statistically comparing different temperature patterns were based on some discriminating statistics obtained by the Recurrence Quantification Analysis (RQA). Moreover, the bootstrap method of Schinkel et al. (2009) was adopted to calculate the confidence bounds of RQA parameters based on a structural preserving resampling. The overall methodology was implemented to the mountainous Mesochora catchment in Central-Western Greece. The results reveal substantial similarities between the historical maximum and minimum daily mean areal temperature statistical patterns and their confidence bounds, as well as the maximum and minimum temperature patterns in evolution under the 2 × CO2 scenario. A significant variability and non-stationary behaviour characterizes all climate series analyzed. Fundamental differences are produced from the historical and maximum 1 × CO2 scenarios, the maximum 1 × CO2 and minimum 1 × CO2 scenarios, as well as the confidence bounds for the two CO2 scenarios. The 2 × CO2 scenario reflects the strongest shifts in intensity, duration and frequency in temperature patterns. Such transitions can help the scientists and policy makers to understand the effects of extreme temperature changes on water resources, economic development, and health of ecosystems and hence to proceed to effective proactive management of extreme phenomena. The impacts of the findings on the predictability of the extreme daily mean areal temperature patterns are also commented. © 2018 Elsevier B.V. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/108922
Appears in Collections: 影响、适应和脆弱性 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: Department of Water Resources and Environmental Engineering, School of Civil Engineering, National Technical University of Athens, 5, Heroon Polytechniou Str., Athens, 15780, Greece; Department of Transportation Planning and Engineering, School of Civil Engineering, National Technical University of Athens, 5, Heroon Polytechniou Str., Athens, 15773, Greece
Recommended Citation:
Panagoulia D.,Vlahogianni E.I.. Recurrence quantification analysis of extremes of maximum and minimum temperature patterns for different climate scenarios in the Mesochora catchment in Central-Western Greece[J]. Atmospheric Research,2018-01-01,205