DOI: 10.1016/j.atmosres.2017.11.031
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-85037696405
论文题名: The ARPAL operational high resolution Poor Man's Ensemble, description and validation
作者: Corazza M. ; Sacchetti D. ; Antonelli M. ; Drofa O.
刊名: Atmospheric Research
ISSN: 1698095
出版年: 2018
卷: 203 起始页码: 1
结束页码: 15
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Ensemble forecasting
; Numerical weather prediction
; Operational weather forecasting
; Poor Man's Ensemble
; Precipitation verification
Scopus关键词: Environmental Protection Agency
; Forecasting
; Uncertainty analysis
; Civil protection
; Ensemble forecasting
; High-resolution models
; Numerical weather prediction
; Poor Man's Ensemble
; Precipitation verification
; Statistical ensembles
; Subjective analysis
; Weather forecasting
; ensemble forecasting
; flash flood
; precipitation (climatology)
; weather forecasting
英文摘要: The Meteo Hydrological Functional Center for Civil Protection of the Environmental Protection Agency of the Liguria Region is responsible for issuing forecasts primarily aimed at the Civil Protection needs. Several deterministic high resolution models, run every 6 or 12 h, are regularly used in the Center to elaborate weather forecasts at short to medium range. The Region is frequently affected by severe flash floods over its very small basins, characterized by a steep orography close to the sea. These conditions led the Center in the past years to pay particular attention to the use and development of high resolution model chains for explicit simulation of convective phenomena. For years, the availability of several models has been used by the forecasters for subjective analyses of the potential evolution of the atmosphere and of its uncertainty. More recently, an Interactive Poor Man's Ensemble has been developed, aimed at providing statistical ensemble variables to help forecaster's evaluations. In this paper the structure of this system is described and results are validated using the regional dense ground observational network. © 2017 Elsevier B.V. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/108957
Appears in Collections: 影响、适应和脆弱性 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: Agenzia Regionale per la Protezione dell'Ambiente Ligure (ARPAL), Genova, Italy; Istituto di Scienze dell'Atmosfera e del Clima (ISAC-CNR), Bologna, Italy
Recommended Citation:
Corazza M.,Sacchetti D.,Antonelli M.,et al. The ARPAL operational high resolution Poor Man's Ensemble, description and validation[J]. Atmospheric Research,2018-01-01,203