globalchange  > 影响、适应和脆弱性
DOI: 10.1007/s00382-018-4072-z
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-85041824367
论文题名:
Runoff variations in Lake Balkhash Basin, Central Asia, 1779–2015, inferred from tree rings
作者: Panyushkina I.P.; Meko D.M.; Macklin M.G.; Toonen W.H.J.; Mukhamаdiev N.S.; Konovalov V.G.; Ashikbaev N.Z.; Sagitov A.O.
刊名: Climate Dynamics
ISSN: 9307575
出版年: 2018
卷: 51, 期:2018-07-08
起始页码: 3161
结束页码: 3177
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Climate change impacts ; Dendrochronology ; Discharge proxy ; Ili River runoff ; Kazakhstan ; Picea schrenkiana ; Tian Shan Mountains ; Water resources
Scopus关键词: Picea ; Picea schrenkiana
英文摘要: Long highly-resolved proxies for runoff are in high demand for hydrological forecasts and water management in arid Central Asia. An accurate (R2 = 0.53) reconstruction of October-September discharge of the Ili River in Kazakhstan, 1779–2015, is developed from moisture-sensitive tree rings of spruce sampled in the Tian Shan Mountains. The fivefold extension of the gauged discharge record represents the variability of runoff in the Lake Balkhash Basin for the last 235 years. The reconstruction shows a 40 year long interval of low discharge preceded a recent high peak in the first decade of the 2000s followed by a decline to more recent levels of discharge not seen since the start of the gauged record. Most reconstructed flow extremes (± 2σ) occur outside the instrumental record (1936–2015) and predate the start of large dam construction (1969). Decadal variability of the Ili discharge corresponds well with hydrological records of other Eurasian internal drainages modeled with tree rings. Spectral analysis identifies variance peaks (highest near 42 year) consistent with main hemispheric oscillations of the Eurasian climatic system. Seasonal comparison of the Ili discharge with sea-level-pressure and geopotential height data suggests periods of high flow likely result from the increased contribution of snow to runoff associated with the interaction of Arctic air circulation with the Siberian High-Pressure System and North Atlantic Oscillation. © 2018, Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany, part of Springer Nature.
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/109112
Appears in Collections:影响、适应和脆弱性
气候变化事实与影响

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作者单位: Laboratory of Tree-Ring Research, University of Arizona, 1215 E. Lowell St., Tucson, AZ 85721, United States; School of Geography and Lincoln Centre for Water and Planetary Health, University of Lincoln, Lincoln, LN6 7TS, United Kingdom; Innovative River Solutions, Institute of Agriculture and Environment, Massey University, Private Bag 11 222, Palmerston North, 4222, New Zealand; Department of Geography and Earth Sciences, Aberystwyth University, Llandinam Building, Penglais Campus, Aberystwyth, SY23 3DB, United Kingdom; Z.H. Zhiembaev Research Institute of Plant Protections and Quarantine, Kazybek Bi 1, Almaty, 050070, Kazakhstan; RAN Institute of Geography, Staromonetnyi Pereulok 29, Moscow, 119017, Russian Federation

Recommended Citation:
Panyushkina I.P.,Meko D.M.,Macklin M.G.,et al. Runoff variations in Lake Balkhash Basin, Central Asia, 1779–2015, inferred from tree rings[J]. Climate Dynamics,2018-01-01,51(2018-07-08)
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