DOI: 10.1007/s00382-017-3988-z
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-85032693045
论文题名: Observed warming over northern South America has an anthropogenic origin
作者: Barkhordarian A. ; von Storch H. ; Zorita E. ; Loikith P.C. ; Mechoso C.R.
刊名: Climate Dynamics
ISSN: 9307575
出版年: 2018
卷: 51, 期: 2018-05-06 起始页码: 1901
结束页码: 1914
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: aerosol
; air temperature
; climate change
; climate modeling
; greenhouse gas
; human activity
; solar radiation
; trend analysis
; warming
; South America
英文摘要: We investigate whether the recently observed trends in daily maximum and minimum near-surface air temperature (Tmax and Tmin, respectively) over South America (SA) are consistent with the simulated response of Tmin and Tmax to anthropogenic forcing. Results indicate that the recently observed warming in the dry seasons is well beyond the range of natural (internal) variability. In the wet season the natural modes of variability explain a substantial portion of Tmin and Tmax variability. We demonstrate that the large-scale component of greenhouse gas (GHG) forcing is detectable in dry-seasonal warming. However, none of the global and regional climate change projections reproduce the observed warming of up to 0.6 K/Decade in Tmax in 1983–2012 over northern SA during the austral spring (SON). Thus, besides the global manifestation of GHG forcing, other external drivers have an imprint. Using aerosols-only forcing simulations, our results provide evidence that anthropogenic aerosols also have a detectable influence in SON and that the indirect effect of aerosols on cloud’s lifetime is more compatible with the observed record. In addition, there is an increasing trend in the observed incoming solar radiation over northern SA in SON, which is larger than expected from natural (internal) variability alone. We further show that in the dry seasons the spread of projected trends based on the RCP4.5 scenario derived from 30 CMIP5 models encompasses the observed area-averaged trends in Tmin and Tmax. This may imply that the observed excessive warming in the dry seasons serve as an illustration of plausible future expected change in the region. © 2017, Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/109129
Appears in Collections: 影响、适应和脆弱性 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, University of California, Los Angeles (UCLA), Los Angeles, United States; Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, CA, United States; Institute of Coastal Research, Helmholtz-Zentrum Geesthacht, Geesthacht, Germany; Department of Geography, Portland State University, Portland, OR, United States
Recommended Citation:
Barkhordarian A.,von Storch H.,Zorita E.,et al. Observed warming over northern South America has an anthropogenic origin[J]. Climate Dynamics,2018-01-01,51(2018-05-06)